Evaluation of the effect of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes in the Salt River Basin, Missouri, United States.

Quang Phung, Thompson Allen, Claire Baffaut, Christine Costello, John Sadler, Anthony Lupo, Bohumil M. Svoma, Sagar Gautam

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The impact of climate and land use changes on watershed hydrologic processes is needed by land managers and policy makers to improve future water resources management. The objective of this ongoing study is to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes including precipitation, streamflow, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the 6, 417 km2 Salt River Basin (SRB) in Northeast Missouri. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to characterize hydrology in the SRB under varying future climate and land use scenarios. Model parameters were calibrated using streamflow data at ten USGS stations within the SRB, with model calibration from 2004-2008 and validation from 2009-2013. For future simulation, climate data from 2014-2060 were obtained from Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) reflecting the range of radiative forcing levels, RCP 8.5 and 4.5 with 20 different model outputs for each RCP, were considered. Statistical downscaling methods, including delta method for temperature and quantile mapping for precipitation, were used to further downscale these data to the climate station level. Two land use scenarios were created with worst-case and best-case scenario and mapped by CLUE-S model to produce 30m × 30m resolution land use maps for the future period. The wide range of combinations of land use and climate change scenarios were examined to indicate possible outcomes useful for local and national agency application within the near (2020-2039) and far (2040-2059) future periods.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2016 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Annual International Meeting, ASABE 2016
PublisherAmerican Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers
ISBN (Electronic)9781510828759
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2016
Event2016 ASABE Annual International Meeting - Orlando, United States
Duration: Jul 17 2016Jul 20 2016

Publication series

Name2016 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Annual International Meeting, ASABE 2016

Other

Other2016 ASABE Annual International Meeting
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando
Period7/17/167/20/16

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Bioengineering
  • Agronomy and Crop Science

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    Phung, Q., Allen, T., Baffaut, C., Costello, C., Sadler, J., Lupo, A., Svoma, B. M., & Gautam, S. (2016). Evaluation of the effect of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes in the Salt River Basin, Missouri, United States. In 2016 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Annual International Meeting, ASABE 2016 (2016 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Annual International Meeting, ASABE 2016). American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. https://doi.org/10.13031/aim.20162457311