Explaining the 2016 Vote for President Trump across U.S. Counties

Stephan J. Goetz, Meri Davlasheridze, Yicheol Han, David A. Fleming-Muñoz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations


We examine how county characteristics affected voting outcomes in the 2016 presidential election, including the populist component represented by the President Trump to Mitt Romney vote difference. Different voter groups could be harmed or helped by policies proposed during the campaign, such as withdrawal from trade agreements, environmental deregulation, and spending cuts. We investigate whether average county-level voting patterns reflected such proposals. Race and educational attainment had large statistical impacts, but economic factors and religious adherence also mattered. The Trump vote share and Trump-Romney vote margin were larger in counties with more farming and coal employment.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)703-722
Number of pages20
JournalApplied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Issue number4
StatePublished - Dec 1 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Development
  • Economics and Econometrics

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