Flexibly modeling alcohol use disorder risk

How many drinks should we count?

Ashley N. Linden-Carmichael, Michael A. Russell, Stephanie Trea Lanza

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Previous research has called the validity of the commonly used 4+/5+ (women/men, respectively) definition for heavy episodic drinking (HED) into question. This definition does not allow researchers to capture the considerable heterogeneity among heavy, "at risk" drinkers. Spline regression methods were used to identify a flattening in the curve in the relationship between number of drinks consumed and prevalence of past-year alcohol use disorder (AUD). This analysis could identify the number of drinks above which no significant additional risk for AUD is conferred. Data were from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III. The analytic sample consisted of young adult past-year drinkers (n = 6,422). Sex-specific drinking thresholds varied as a function of the number of drinks consumed during past-year typical and heaviest drinking occasions. For typical drinking, the risk for AUD continued to increase through approximately 10 (women) and 11 (men) drinks, after which AUD risk remained constant. That is, young adult drinkers experienced incremental risk for AUD through approximately a typical amount of 10 drinks, after which the risk for AUD plateaued. For heaviest drinking occasion, risk for AUD continued to increase for men and tapered for women around 14 drinks. There is incremental information gained at each level of drinking in predicting AUD, well beyond the traditional 4+/5+ HED thresholds. Relying solely on this threshold may limit the understanding of serious harms that many young adults who drink at higher levels can experience.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)50-57
Number of pages8
JournalPsychology of Addictive Behaviors
Volume33
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2019

Fingerprint

Alcohols
Drinking
Young Adult
Research Personnel
Research

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Clinical Psychology
  • Psychiatry and Mental health

Cite this

@article{acb5daffa3944924a5900e9dce5dd8df,
title = "Flexibly modeling alcohol use disorder risk: How many drinks should we count?",
abstract = "Previous research has called the validity of the commonly used 4+/5+ (women/men, respectively) definition for heavy episodic drinking (HED) into question. This definition does not allow researchers to capture the considerable heterogeneity among heavy, {"}at risk{"} drinkers. Spline regression methods were used to identify a flattening in the curve in the relationship between number of drinks consumed and prevalence of past-year alcohol use disorder (AUD). This analysis could identify the number of drinks above which no significant additional risk for AUD is conferred. Data were from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III. The analytic sample consisted of young adult past-year drinkers (n = 6,422). Sex-specific drinking thresholds varied as a function of the number of drinks consumed during past-year typical and heaviest drinking occasions. For typical drinking, the risk for AUD continued to increase through approximately 10 (women) and 11 (men) drinks, after which AUD risk remained constant. That is, young adult drinkers experienced incremental risk for AUD through approximately a typical amount of 10 drinks, after which the risk for AUD plateaued. For heaviest drinking occasion, risk for AUD continued to increase for men and tapered for women around 14 drinks. There is incremental information gained at each level of drinking in predicting AUD, well beyond the traditional 4+/5+ HED thresholds. Relying solely on this threshold may limit the understanding of serious harms that many young adults who drink at higher levels can experience.",
author = "Linden-Carmichael, {Ashley N.} and Russell, {Michael A.} and Lanza, {Stephanie Trea}",
year = "2019",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1037/adb0000431",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "33",
pages = "50--57",
journal = "Psychology of Addictive Behaviors",
issn = "0893-164X",
publisher = "Educational Publishing Foundation",
number = "1",

}

Flexibly modeling alcohol use disorder risk : How many drinks should we count? / Linden-Carmichael, Ashley N.; Russell, Michael A.; Lanza, Stephanie Trea.

In: Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, Vol. 33, No. 1, 01.02.2019, p. 50-57.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Flexibly modeling alcohol use disorder risk

T2 - How many drinks should we count?

AU - Linden-Carmichael, Ashley N.

AU - Russell, Michael A.

AU - Lanza, Stephanie Trea

PY - 2019/2/1

Y1 - 2019/2/1

N2 - Previous research has called the validity of the commonly used 4+/5+ (women/men, respectively) definition for heavy episodic drinking (HED) into question. This definition does not allow researchers to capture the considerable heterogeneity among heavy, "at risk" drinkers. Spline regression methods were used to identify a flattening in the curve in the relationship between number of drinks consumed and prevalence of past-year alcohol use disorder (AUD). This analysis could identify the number of drinks above which no significant additional risk for AUD is conferred. Data were from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III. The analytic sample consisted of young adult past-year drinkers (n = 6,422). Sex-specific drinking thresholds varied as a function of the number of drinks consumed during past-year typical and heaviest drinking occasions. For typical drinking, the risk for AUD continued to increase through approximately 10 (women) and 11 (men) drinks, after which AUD risk remained constant. That is, young adult drinkers experienced incremental risk for AUD through approximately a typical amount of 10 drinks, after which the risk for AUD plateaued. For heaviest drinking occasion, risk for AUD continued to increase for men and tapered for women around 14 drinks. There is incremental information gained at each level of drinking in predicting AUD, well beyond the traditional 4+/5+ HED thresholds. Relying solely on this threshold may limit the understanding of serious harms that many young adults who drink at higher levels can experience.

AB - Previous research has called the validity of the commonly used 4+/5+ (women/men, respectively) definition for heavy episodic drinking (HED) into question. This definition does not allow researchers to capture the considerable heterogeneity among heavy, "at risk" drinkers. Spline regression methods were used to identify a flattening in the curve in the relationship between number of drinks consumed and prevalence of past-year alcohol use disorder (AUD). This analysis could identify the number of drinks above which no significant additional risk for AUD is conferred. Data were from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III. The analytic sample consisted of young adult past-year drinkers (n = 6,422). Sex-specific drinking thresholds varied as a function of the number of drinks consumed during past-year typical and heaviest drinking occasions. For typical drinking, the risk for AUD continued to increase through approximately 10 (women) and 11 (men) drinks, after which AUD risk remained constant. That is, young adult drinkers experienced incremental risk for AUD through approximately a typical amount of 10 drinks, after which the risk for AUD plateaued. For heaviest drinking occasion, risk for AUD continued to increase for men and tapered for women around 14 drinks. There is incremental information gained at each level of drinking in predicting AUD, well beyond the traditional 4+/5+ HED thresholds. Relying solely on this threshold may limit the understanding of serious harms that many young adults who drink at higher levels can experience.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059264951&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85059264951&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1037/adb0000431

DO - 10.1037/adb0000431

M3 - Article

VL - 33

SP - 50

EP - 57

JO - Psychology of Addictive Behaviors

JF - Psychology of Addictive Behaviors

SN - 0893-164X

IS - 1

ER -