Forecasting new adoptions

A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation

Kenneth D. Lawrence, Dinesh Ramdas Pai, Sheila M. Lawrence

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Forecasting sales for an innovation before the product's introduction is a necessary but difficult task. Forecasting is a crucial analytic tool when assessing the business case for internal or external investments in new technologies. For early stage investments or internal business cases for new products, it is essential to have some understanding of the likely diffusion of the technology. Diffusion of innovation models are important tools for effectively assessing the merits of investing in technologies that are new or novel and do not have prima facie, predictable patterns of user uptake. Most new product forecasting models require the estimation of parameters for use in the models. In this chapter, we evaluate three techniques to determine the parameters of the Bass diffusion model by using an example of a new movie.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAdvances in Business and Management Forecasting
EditorsKenneth Lawrence, Ronald Klimberg
Pages81-91
Number of pages11
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2009

Publication series

NameAdvances in Business and Management Forecasting
Volume6
ISSN (Print)1477-4070

Fingerprint

Evaluation
Parameter estimation
Business case
Investing
Sales forecasting
Innovation
New product forecasting
New products
Product introduction
Diffusion of innovation
Innovation model
Diffusion model
Movies

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)

Cite this

Lawrence, K. D., Pai, D. R., & Lawrence, S. M. (2009). Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation. In K. Lawrence, & R. Klimberg (Eds.), Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (pp. 81-91). (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting; Vol. 6). https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006006
Lawrence, Kenneth D. ; Pai, Dinesh Ramdas ; Lawrence, Sheila M. / Forecasting new adoptions : A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting. editor / Kenneth Lawrence ; Ronald Klimberg. 2009. pp. 81-91 (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting).
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Lawrence, KD, Pai, DR & Lawrence, SM 2009, Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation. in K Lawrence & R Klimberg (eds), Advances in Business and Management Forecasting. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, vol. 6, pp. 81-91. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006006

Forecasting new adoptions : A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation. / Lawrence, Kenneth D.; Pai, Dinesh Ramdas; Lawrence, Sheila M.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting. ed. / Kenneth Lawrence; Ronald Klimberg. 2009. p. 81-91 (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting; Vol. 6).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

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Lawrence KD, Pai DR, Lawrence SM. Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation. In Lawrence K, Klimberg R, editors, Advances in Business and Management Forecasting. 2009. p. 81-91. (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting). https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006006