Forecasting the locational dynamics of transnational terrorism: A network analytic approach

Bruce A. Desmarais, Skyler J. Cranmer

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terrorism rely, to a great extent, on the effective allocation of security resources. Critical to the success of this allocation process is the identification of the likely geopolitical sources and targets of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target (receiver) countries share a directed edge, and we evaluate a network analytic approach to forecasting the geopolitical sources and targets of terrorism. We integrate a deterministic, similarity-based, link prediction framework [1] into a probabilistic modeling approach [2] in order to develop an edge-forecasting method. Using a database of over 12,000 transnational terrorist attacks occurring between 1968 and 2002 [3], we show that probabilistic link prediction is not only capable of accurate forecasting during a terrorist campaign, but is a promising approach to forecasting the onset of terrorist hostilities between a source and a target.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2011 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, EISIC 2011
Pages171-177
Number of pages7
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011
Event2011 1st European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, EISIC 2011 - Athens, Greece
Duration: Sep 12 2011Sep 14 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2011 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, EISIC 2011

Other

Other2011 1st European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, EISIC 2011
CountryGreece
CityAthens
Period9/12/119/14/11

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Information Systems
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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    Desmarais, B. A., & Cranmer, S. J. (2011). Forecasting the locational dynamics of transnational terrorism: A network analytic approach. In Proceedings - 2011 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, EISIC 2011 (pp. 171-177). [6061174] (Proceedings - 2011 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, EISIC 2011). https://doi.org/10.1109/EISIC.2011.44