Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis

Lori Pennington-Gray, Deborah Lee Kerstetter, Rod Warnick

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to introduce Palmore's (1978) method of cohort analysis and illustrate its potential application to tourism forecasting. Results suggested that (a) older cohorts participate less frequently in international travel than younger cohorts, (b) decrease in participation continues as one ages, and (c) changes in travel behavior are due primarily to period effects. With respect to the impact these findings may have on the tourism industry, the results suggest that marketers should monitor the aggregate changes taking place within targeted cohorts, and strategic planning should not be based on an assessment of differences between cohorts at one point in time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationTourism Forecasting and Marketing
PublisherTaylor and Francis
Pages127-145
Number of pages19
ISBN (Electronic)9780203049761
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2012

Fingerprint

Cohort
Cohort analysis
Tourism industry
Strategic planning
Travel behavior
International travel
Marketers
Participation
Tourism forecasting

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)

Cite this

Pennington-Gray, L., Kerstetter, D. L., & Warnick, R. (2012). Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis. In Tourism Forecasting and Marketing (pp. 127-145). Taylor and Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203049761
Pennington-Gray, Lori ; Kerstetter, Deborah Lee ; Warnick, Rod. / Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis. Tourism Forecasting and Marketing. Taylor and Francis, 2012. pp. 127-145
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Pennington-Gray, L, Kerstetter, DL & Warnick, R 2012, Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis. in Tourism Forecasting and Marketing. Taylor and Francis, pp. 127-145. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203049761

Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis. / Pennington-Gray, Lori; Kerstetter, Deborah Lee; Warnick, Rod.

Tourism Forecasting and Marketing. Taylor and Francis, 2012. p. 127-145.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

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Pennington-Gray L, Kerstetter DL, Warnick R. Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis. In Tourism Forecasting and Marketing. Taylor and Francis. 2012. p. 127-145 https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203049761