Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis

Lori Pennington-Gray, Deborah L. Kerstetter, Rod Warnick

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to introduce Palmore's (1978) method of cohort analysis and illustrate its potential application to tourism forecasting. Results suggested that (a) older cohorts participate less frequently in international travel than younger cohorts, (b) decrease in participation continues as one ages, and (c) changes in travel behavior are due primarily to period effects. With respect to the impact these findings may have on the tourism industry, the results suggest that marketers should monitor the aggregate changes taking place within targeted cohorts, and strategic planning should not be based on an assessment of differences between cohorts at one point in time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationTourism Forecasting and Marketing
PublisherTaylor and Francis
Pages127-145
Number of pages19
ISBN (Electronic)9780203049761
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2012

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)

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  • Cite this

    Pennington-Gray, L., Kerstetter, D. L., & Warnick, R. (2012). Forecasting travel patterns using Palmore's cohort analysis. In Tourism Forecasting and Marketing (pp. 127-145). Taylor and Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203049761