Forecasting travel patterns using palmore’s cohort analysis

Lori Pennington-Gray, Deborah Lee Kerstetter, Rod Warnick

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to introduce Palmore’s (1978) method of cohort analysis and illustrate its potential application to tourism forecasting. Results suggested that (a) older cohorts participate less frequently in international travel than younger cohorts, (b) decrease in participation continues as one ages, and (c) changes in travel behavior are due primarily to period effects. With respect to the impact these findings may have on the tourism industry, the results suggest that marketers should monitor the aggregate changes taking place within targeted cohorts, and strategic planning should not be based on an assessment of differences between cohorts at one point in time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)125-143
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Travel and Tourism Marketing
Volume13
Issue number1-2
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2002

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cohort analysis
tourism
travel behavior
industry
travel
Cohort
Cohort analysis
young
method
planning
effect
participation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management
  • Marketing

Cite this

Pennington-Gray, Lori ; Kerstetter, Deborah Lee ; Warnick, Rod. / Forecasting travel patterns using palmore’s cohort analysis. In: Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing. 2002 ; Vol. 13, No. 1-2. pp. 125-143.
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Forecasting travel patterns using palmore’s cohort analysis. / Pennington-Gray, Lori; Kerstetter, Deborah Lee; Warnick, Rod.

In: Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, Vol. 13, No. 1-2, 01.11.2002, p. 125-143.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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