Foreign policy substitutability and internal economic problems in enduring rivalries

D. Scott Bennett, Timothy Nordstrom

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

52 Scopus citations

Abstract

The authors advance a general perspective on how to incorporate the notion of foreign policy substitutability in probabilistic models of international politics. They suggest that substitutability may be dealt with in one of two ways, namely, (1) through better specification or (2) through the use of multinomial logit analysis techniques. Their solution is applied to the substantive problem of how internal economic conditions affect the behavior of states in enduring rivalries. States in rivalries might react to worsening economic problems by either (1) escalating conflict within the rivalry to gain the benefits of a diversionary conflict or (2) seeking to settle the rivalry to free up resources that can be directed toward dealing with economic problems. The possibility that seemingly contradictory policies may be undertaken requires the use of a model for analysis that takes into account substitutability. The authors perform empirical analysis to determine how economic conditions may simultaneously affect the probabilities of dispute initiation and rivalry termination.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)33-61
Number of pages29
JournalJournal of Conflict Resolution
Volume44
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2000

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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