How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival: A response to Lucas and Richter (2016)

Joseph Wright, Erica Frantz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper re-examines the findings from a recently published study on hydrocarbon rents and autocratic survival by Lucas and Richter (LR hereafter). LR introduce a new data set on hydrocarbon rents and use it to examine the link between oil income and autocratic survival. Employing a placebo test, we show that the authors’ strategy for dealing with missingness in the new hydrocarbon rents data set – filling in missing data with zeros – creates bias in the reported estimates of interest. Addressing missingness with multiple imputation shows that the LR findings linking oil rents to democratization do not hold. Instead, we find that hydrocarbon rents reduce the chances of transition to a new dictatorship, consistent with the conclusions of Wright et al.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalResearch and Politics
Volume4
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2017

Fingerprint

rent
income
dictatorship
democratization
trend

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Public Administration
  • Political Science and International Relations

Cite this

@article{402966f1c0a245e5a39f1a8ae75ba552,
title = "How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival: A response to Lucas and Richter (2016)",
abstract = "This paper re-examines the findings from a recently published study on hydrocarbon rents and autocratic survival by Lucas and Richter (LR hereafter). LR introduce a new data set on hydrocarbon rents and use it to examine the link between oil income and autocratic survival. Employing a placebo test, we show that the authors’ strategy for dealing with missingness in the new hydrocarbon rents data set – filling in missing data with zeros – creates bias in the reported estimates of interest. Addressing missingness with multiple imputation shows that the LR findings linking oil rents to democratization do not hold. Instead, we find that hydrocarbon rents reduce the chances of transition to a new dictatorship, consistent with the conclusions of Wright et al.",
author = "Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz",
year = "2017",
month = "7",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1177/2053168017719794",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "4",
journal = "Research and Politics",
issn = "2053-1680",
publisher = "SAGE Publications Ltd",
number = "3",

}

How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival : A response to Lucas and Richter (2016). / Wright, Joseph; Frantz, Erica.

In: Research and Politics, Vol. 4, No. 3, 01.07.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival

T2 - A response to Lucas and Richter (2016)

AU - Wright, Joseph

AU - Frantz, Erica

PY - 2017/7/1

Y1 - 2017/7/1

N2 - This paper re-examines the findings from a recently published study on hydrocarbon rents and autocratic survival by Lucas and Richter (LR hereafter). LR introduce a new data set on hydrocarbon rents and use it to examine the link between oil income and autocratic survival. Employing a placebo test, we show that the authors’ strategy for dealing with missingness in the new hydrocarbon rents data set – filling in missing data with zeros – creates bias in the reported estimates of interest. Addressing missingness with multiple imputation shows that the LR findings linking oil rents to democratization do not hold. Instead, we find that hydrocarbon rents reduce the chances of transition to a new dictatorship, consistent with the conclusions of Wright et al.

AB - This paper re-examines the findings from a recently published study on hydrocarbon rents and autocratic survival by Lucas and Richter (LR hereafter). LR introduce a new data set on hydrocarbon rents and use it to examine the link between oil income and autocratic survival. Employing a placebo test, we show that the authors’ strategy for dealing with missingness in the new hydrocarbon rents data set – filling in missing data with zeros – creates bias in the reported estimates of interest. Addressing missingness with multiple imputation shows that the LR findings linking oil rents to democratization do not hold. Instead, we find that hydrocarbon rents reduce the chances of transition to a new dictatorship, consistent with the conclusions of Wright et al.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048875808&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85048875808&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/2053168017719794

DO - 10.1177/2053168017719794

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85048875808

VL - 4

JO - Research and Politics

JF - Research and Politics

SN - 2053-1680

IS - 3

ER -