Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

32 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002–2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1–5 early long-range transmission events, half of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty had particularly localized modes of spread, suggesting that novel strains may spread in a more localized fashion than previously anticipated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere1005382
JournalPLoS computational biology
Volume13
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2017

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influenza
Influenza
Human Influenza
Invasion
Gravitation
Proxy
Pathogens
gravity
traffic
pathogen
deterioration
Air
Gravity Model
air
pathogens
Commute
Population
Driver
Human
Pathway

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Ecology
  • Molecular Biology
  • Genetics
  • Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics

Cite this

Charu, Vivek ; Zeger, Scott ; Gog, Julia ; Bjørnstad, Ottar N. ; Kissler, Stephen ; Simonsen, Lone ; Grenfell, Bryan T. ; Viboud, Cécile. / Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. In: PLoS computational biology. 2017 ; Vol. 13, No. 2.
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Charu, V, Zeger, S, Gog, J, Bjørnstad, ON, Kissler, S, Simonsen, L, Grenfell, BT & Viboud, C 2017, 'Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States', PLoS computational biology, vol. 13, no. 2, e1005382. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005382

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States. / Charu, Vivek; Zeger, Scott; Gog, Julia; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Kissler, Stephen; Simonsen, Lone; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Viboud, Cécile.

In: PLoS computational biology, Vol. 13, No. 2, e1005382, 02.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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