TY - JOUR
T1 - Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes
AU - Mayewski, P. A.
AU - Carleton, A. M.
AU - Birkel, S. D.
AU - Dixon, D.
AU - Kurbatov, A. V.
AU - Korotkikh, E.
AU - McConnell, J.
AU - Curran, M.
AU - Cole-Dai, J.
AU - Jiang, S.
AU - Plummer, C.
AU - Vance, T.
AU - Maasch, K. A.
AU - Sneed, S. B.
AU - Handley, M.
N1 - Funding Information:
Ice core sodium records used in this study were recovered and analyzed under NSF grants to PM ( 0439589 , 0636506 , 0829227 , 1042883 , 1203640 ), to AC ( SES-86-03470 , OPP-88-16912 , OPP-92-19446/94-96248 ), and to JC-D ( 0337933 and 0839066 ). The Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) Program ice core was funded by national contributions from New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, the People's Republic of China, Sweden, UK, and USA with logistic support provided by Antarctica New Zealand and the US Antarctic Program. This paper is a contribution to the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) SRP (Scientific Research Programme). All data are plotted using the Climate Change Institute's Climate Reanalyzer™.
PY - 2017/1/1
Y1 - 2017/1/1
N2 - A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.
AB - A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.11.017
DO - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.11.017
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84997050427
VL - 155
SP - 50
EP - 66
JO - Quaternary Science Reviews
JF - Quaternary Science Reviews
SN - 0277-3791
ER -