Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)

Robert A. Bindschadler, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-OUCHI, Andy Aschwanden, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Anders Levermann, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. PriceDiandong Ren, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

142 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)195-224
Number of pages30
JournalJournal of Glaciology
Volume59
Issue number214
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1 2013

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ice sheet
ice shelf
sea level
basal melting
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
volume change
sea level change
sliding
interpolation
mass balance
melting
experiment
ice
Antarctica
project
temperature
flotation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Earth-Surface Processes

Cite this

Bindschadler, R. A., Nowicki, S., Abe-OUCHI, A., Aschwanden, A., Choi, H., Fastook, J., ... Wang, W. L. (2013). Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project). Journal of Glaciology, 59(214), 195-224. https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125
Bindschadler, Robert A. ; Nowicki, Sophie ; Abe-OUCHI, Ayako ; Aschwanden, Andy ; Choi, Hyeungu ; Fastook, Jim ; Granzow, Glen ; Greve, Ralf ; Gutowski, Gail ; Herzfeld, Ute ; Jackson, Charles ; Johnson, Jesse ; Khroulev, Constantine ; Levermann, Anders ; Lipscomb, William H. ; Martin, Maria A. ; Morlighem, Mathieu ; Parizek, Byron R. ; Pollard, David ; Price, Stephen F. ; Ren, Diandong ; Saito, Fuyuki ; Sato, Tatsuru ; Seddik, Hakime ; Seroussi, Helene ; Takahashi, Kunio ; Walker, Ryan ; Wang, Wei Li. / Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project). In: Journal of Glaciology. 2013 ; Vol. 59, No. 214. pp. 195-224.
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Bindschadler, RA, Nowicki, S, Abe-OUCHI, A, Aschwanden, A, Choi, H, Fastook, J, Granzow, G, Greve, R, Gutowski, G, Herzfeld, U, Jackson, C, Johnson, J, Khroulev, C, Levermann, A, Lipscomb, WH, Martin, MA, Morlighem, M, Parizek, BR, Pollard, D, Price, SF, Ren, D, Saito, F, Sato, T, Seddik, H, Seroussi, H, Takahashi, K, Walker, R & Wang, WL 2013, 'Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)', Journal of Glaciology, vol. 59, no. 214, pp. 195-224. https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125

Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project). / Bindschadler, Robert A.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-OUCHI, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Choi, Hyeungu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail; Herzfeld, Ute; Jackson, Charles; Johnson, Jesse; Khroulev, Constantine; Levermann, Anders; Lipscomb, William H.; Martin, Maria A.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Parizek, Byron R.; Pollard, David; Price, Stephen F.; Ren, Diandong; Saito, Fuyuki; Sato, Tatsuru; Seddik, Hakime; Seroussi, Helene; Takahashi, Kunio; Walker, Ryan; Wang, Wei Li.

In: Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, No. 214, 01.04.2013, p. 195-224.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)

AU - Bindschadler, Robert A.

AU - Nowicki, Sophie

AU - Abe-OUCHI, Ayako

AU - Aschwanden, Andy

AU - Choi, Hyeungu

AU - Fastook, Jim

AU - Granzow, Glen

AU - Greve, Ralf

AU - Gutowski, Gail

AU - Herzfeld, Ute

AU - Jackson, Charles

AU - Johnson, Jesse

AU - Khroulev, Constantine

AU - Levermann, Anders

AU - Lipscomb, William H.

AU - Martin, Maria A.

AU - Morlighem, Mathieu

AU - Parizek, Byron R.

AU - Pollard, David

AU - Price, Stephen F.

AU - Ren, Diandong

AU - Saito, Fuyuki

AU - Sato, Tatsuru

AU - Seddik, Hakime

AU - Seroussi, Helene

AU - Takahashi, Kunio

AU - Walker, Ryan

AU - Wang, Wei Li

PY - 2013/4/1

Y1 - 2013/4/1

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