Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

Tim Brown, Le Bao, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Daniel R. Hogan, Mary Mahy, Kimberly Marsh, Bradley M. Mathers, Robert Puckett

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.

Methods: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: Availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15-49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting

Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.

Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)S415-S425
JournalAIDS
Volume28
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 11 2014

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Incidence
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
United Nations
HIV
Calibration
Likelihood Functions
Information Storage and Retrieval
Joints
Mortality
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Surveys and Questionnaires
Therapeutics

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Immunology
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

Brown, T., Bao, L., Eaton, J. W., Hogan, D. R., Mahy, M., Marsh, K., ... Puckett, R. (2014). Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013. AIDS, 28, S415-S425. https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000000454
Brown, Tim ; Bao, Le ; Eaton, Jeffrey W. ; Hogan, Daniel R. ; Mahy, Mary ; Marsh, Kimberly ; Mathers, Bradley M. ; Puckett, Robert. / Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013. In: AIDS. 2014 ; Vol. 28. pp. S415-S425.
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Brown, T, Bao, L, Eaton, JW, Hogan, DR, Mahy, M, Marsh, K, Mathers, BM & Puckett, R 2014, 'Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013', AIDS, vol. 28, pp. S415-S425. https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000000454

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013. / Brown, Tim; Bao, Le; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Hogan, Daniel R.; Mahy, Mary; Marsh, Kimberly; Mathers, Bradley M.; Puckett, Robert.

In: AIDS, Vol. 28, 11.11.2014, p. S415-S425.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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T1 - Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

AU - Brown, Tim

AU - Bao, Le

AU - Eaton, Jeffrey W.

AU - Hogan, Daniel R.

AU - Mahy, Mary

AU - Marsh, Kimberly

AU - Mathers, Bradley M.

AU - Puckett, Robert

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AB - Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.Methods: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: Availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15-49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fittingResults: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.

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