@article{d6901a4c95fd4175a294cccde4f609ff,
title = "Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment",
abstract = "The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.",
author = "O{\textquoteright}Brien, {T. A.} and Wehner, {M. F.} and Payne, {A. E.} and Shields, {C. A.} and Rutz, {J. J.} and Leung, {L. R.} and Ralph, {F. M.} and A. Collow and I. Gorodetskaya and B. Guan and Lora, {J. M.} and E. McClenny and Nardi, {K. M.} and Ramos, {A. M.} and R. Tom{\'e} and C. Sarangi and Shearer, {E. J.} and Ullrich, {P. A.} and C. Zarzycki and B. Loring and H. Huang and Inda-D{\'i}az, {H. A.} and Rhoades, {A. M.} and Y. Zhou",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank the multiple reviewers and editors whose feedback and commentary greatly improved the quality and presentation of this manuscript. This research was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGMA) and used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), also supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The contributions of T. A. O{\textquoteright}Brien were supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional and Global Model Analysis Program, under Award Number DE-AC02-05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. Alexandre M. Ramos is supported by the Funda{\c c}{\~a}o para a Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) project “Weather Extremes in the Euro Atlantic Region: Assessment and Impacts-WEx-Atlantic” (PTDC/CTA-MET/29 233/2 017). A. M. Ramos also acknowledges the Scientific Employment Stimulus 2017 from FCT (CEECIND/00 027/2 017). Irina V. Gorodetskaya thanks FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/500 017/2 020+UIDB/500 017/2 020), through national funds, and FCT Project ATLACE (CIRCNA/CAC/0273/2 019). Eric J. Shearer is supported by the Ridge to Reef Graduate Training Program funded by NSF-NRT award DGE-1735040. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank DOE's RGMA program area, the Data Management program, and NERSC for making this coordinated CMIP6 analysis activity possible. ARTMIP is a grass-roots community effort and includes a collection of international researchers from universities, laboratories, and agencies. Details on catalogues developers can be found on the ARTMIP website. ARTMIP has received support from the US Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program, and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institute for Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. Funding Information: The authors thank the multiple reviewers and editors whose feedback and commentary greatly improved the quality and presentation of this manuscript. This research was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGMA) and used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), also supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE‐AC02‐05CH11231. The contributions of T. A. O{\textquoteright}Brien were supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional and Global Model Analysis Program, under Award Number DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; in part by the Environmental Resilience Institute, funded by Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative and in part by Lilly Endowment Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute. Alexandre M. Ramos is supported by the Funda{\c c}{\~a}o para a Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) project “Weather Extremes in the Euro Atlantic Region: Assessment and Impacts‐WEx‐Atlantic” (PTDC/CTA‐MET/29 233/2 017). A. M. Ramos also acknowledges the Scientific Employment Stimulus 2017 from FCT (CEECIND/00 027/2 017). Irina V. Gorodetskaya thanks FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/500 017/2 020+UIDB/500 017/2 020), through national funds, and FCT Project ATLACE (CIRCNA/CAC/0273/2 019). Eric J. Shearer is supported by the Ridge to Reef Graduate Training Program funded by NSF‐NRT award DGE‐1735040. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank DOE's RGMA program area, the Data Management program, and NERSC for making this coordinated CMIP6 analysis activity possible. ARTMIP is a grass‐roots community effort and includes a collection of international researchers from universities, laboratories, and agencies. Details on catalogues developers can be found on the ARTMIP website. ARTMIP has received support from the US Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program, and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institute for Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. Battelle Memorial Institute. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.",
year = "2022",
month = mar,
day = "27",
doi = "10.1029/2021JD036013",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "127",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres",
issn = "2169-897X",
number = "6",
}