Influenza drift and epidemic size: The race between generating and escaping immunity

Maciej F. Boni, Julia R. Gog, Viggo Andreasen, Freddy B. Christiansen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

53 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Influenza in humans is characterised by strongly annual dynamics and antigenic evolution leading to partial escape from prior host immunity. The variability of new epidemic strains depends on the amount of virus currently circulating. In this paper, the amount of antigenic variation produced each year is dependent on the epidemic size. Our model reduces to a one-dimensional map and a full mathematical analysis is presented. This simple system suggests some basic principles which may be more generally applicable. In particular, for diseases with antigenic drift, vaccination may be doubly beneficial. Not only does it protect the population through classical herd immunity, but the overall case reduction reduces the chance of new variants being produced; hence, subsequent epidemics may be milder as a result of this positive feedback. Also, a disease with a high innate rate of antigenic variation will always be able to invade a susceptible population, whereas a disease with less potential for variation may require several introduction events to become endemic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)179-191
Number of pages13
JournalTheoretical Population Biology
Volume65
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2004

Fingerprint

antigenic variation
influenza
immunity
human influenza
mathematical analysis
vaccination
at-risk population
virus
viruses

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Boni, Maciej F. ; Gog, Julia R. ; Andreasen, Viggo ; Christiansen, Freddy B. / Influenza drift and epidemic size : The race between generating and escaping immunity. In: Theoretical Population Biology. 2004 ; Vol. 65, No. 2. pp. 179-191.
@article{9f859d8c9fc44f22a67f2868bb86e61d,
title = "Influenza drift and epidemic size: The race between generating and escaping immunity",
abstract = "Influenza in humans is characterised by strongly annual dynamics and antigenic evolution leading to partial escape from prior host immunity. The variability of new epidemic strains depends on the amount of virus currently circulating. In this paper, the amount of antigenic variation produced each year is dependent on the epidemic size. Our model reduces to a one-dimensional map and a full mathematical analysis is presented. This simple system suggests some basic principles which may be more generally applicable. In particular, for diseases with antigenic drift, vaccination may be doubly beneficial. Not only does it protect the population through classical herd immunity, but the overall case reduction reduces the chance of new variants being produced; hence, subsequent epidemics may be milder as a result of this positive feedback. Also, a disease with a high innate rate of antigenic variation will always be able to invade a susceptible population, whereas a disease with less potential for variation may require several introduction events to become endemic.",
author = "Boni, {Maciej F.} and Gog, {Julia R.} and Viggo Andreasen and Christiansen, {Freddy B.}",
year = "2004",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.tpb.2003.10.002",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "65",
pages = "179--191",
journal = "Theoretical Population Biology",
issn = "0040-5809",
publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",
number = "2",

}

Influenza drift and epidemic size : The race between generating and escaping immunity. / Boni, Maciej F.; Gog, Julia R.; Andreasen, Viggo; Christiansen, Freddy B.

In: Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 65, No. 2, 01.01.2004, p. 179-191.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Influenza drift and epidemic size

T2 - The race between generating and escaping immunity

AU - Boni, Maciej F.

AU - Gog, Julia R.

AU - Andreasen, Viggo

AU - Christiansen, Freddy B.

PY - 2004/1/1

Y1 - 2004/1/1

N2 - Influenza in humans is characterised by strongly annual dynamics and antigenic evolution leading to partial escape from prior host immunity. The variability of new epidemic strains depends on the amount of virus currently circulating. In this paper, the amount of antigenic variation produced each year is dependent on the epidemic size. Our model reduces to a one-dimensional map and a full mathematical analysis is presented. This simple system suggests some basic principles which may be more generally applicable. In particular, for diseases with antigenic drift, vaccination may be doubly beneficial. Not only does it protect the population through classical herd immunity, but the overall case reduction reduces the chance of new variants being produced; hence, subsequent epidemics may be milder as a result of this positive feedback. Also, a disease with a high innate rate of antigenic variation will always be able to invade a susceptible population, whereas a disease with less potential for variation may require several introduction events to become endemic.

AB - Influenza in humans is characterised by strongly annual dynamics and antigenic evolution leading to partial escape from prior host immunity. The variability of new epidemic strains depends on the amount of virus currently circulating. In this paper, the amount of antigenic variation produced each year is dependent on the epidemic size. Our model reduces to a one-dimensional map and a full mathematical analysis is presented. This simple system suggests some basic principles which may be more generally applicable. In particular, for diseases with antigenic drift, vaccination may be doubly beneficial. Not only does it protect the population through classical herd immunity, but the overall case reduction reduces the chance of new variants being produced; hence, subsequent epidemics may be milder as a result of this positive feedback. Also, a disease with a high innate rate of antigenic variation will always be able to invade a susceptible population, whereas a disease with less potential for variation may require several introduction events to become endemic.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1242299532&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=1242299532&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.tpb.2003.10.002

DO - 10.1016/j.tpb.2003.10.002

M3 - Article

C2 - 14766191

AN - SCOPUS:1242299532

VL - 65

SP - 179

EP - 191

JO - Theoretical Population Biology

JF - Theoretical Population Biology

SN - 0040-5809

IS - 2

ER -