Integrating and testing models of rivalry duration

Theory: Previously separate explanations of rivalry termination based in political shocks, security, and domestic politics can be integrated in a single model of bargaining between rational decision-makers who have multiple goals. Hypotheses from the previously separate models should be tested together. Hypotheses: Security concerns, issue salience, democracy and democratization, regime change, and political shocks affect the probability of rivalry termination, and, in turn, rivalry duration. Duration dependence may also affect rivalry duration. Methods: A parametric hazard model with a Weibull specification and time-varying covariates is estimated on a data set of sixty-three enduring rivalries generated from the latest militarized interstate dispute data. Results: Domestic political factors and issue salience are the most likely causes of rivalry termination. Rivalries also appear strongly and positively duration-dependent, meaning that the hazard rate in rivalries increases over time, and thus that rivalry termination tends to accelerate as rivalries continue. Findings on political shocks and security concerns are sensitive to operationalization. Some causal relationships appear to differ between preand post-WWII rivalries.