Large Shifts in Pathogen Virulence Relate to Host Population Structure

M. Boots, P. J. Hudson, A. Sasaki

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

136 Scopus citations

Abstract

Theory on the evolution of virulence generally predicts selection for an optimal level of virulence determined by trade-offs with transmission and/or recovery. Here we consider the evolution of pathogen virulence in hosts who acquire long-lived immunity and live in a spatially structured population. We show theoretically that large shifts in virulence may occur in pathogen populations as a result of a bistability in evolutionary dynamics caused by the local contact or social population structure of the host. This model provides an explanation for the rapid emergence of the highly virulent strains of rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)842-844
Number of pages3
JournalScience
Volume303
Issue number5659
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 6 2004

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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