Mapping the Regional Transition to Cyclicity in Clethrionomys rufocanus

Spectral Densities and Functional Data Analysis

Ottar N. Bjornstad, Nils Chr Stenseth, Takashi Saitoh, Ole Chr Lingjærde

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

61 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We study the regional transitions in dynamics of the gray-sided vole, Clethrionomys rufocanus, within Hokkaido, Japan. The data-set consists of 225 time series of varying length (most from 23 to 31 years long) collected between 1962 and 1992 by the Forestry Agency of the Japanese Government. To see clearly how the periodic behavior changes geographically, we estimate the spectral density functions of the growth rates of all populations using a log-spline method. We subsequently apply functional data analysis to the estimated densities. The functional data analysis is, in this context, analogous to a principal component analysis applied to curves. We plot the results of the analysis on the map of Hokkaido, to reveal a clear transition from relatively stable populations in the southwest and west to populations undergoing 3-4 year cycles in the northeast and east. The degree of seasonality in the vegetation and the rodent demography appear to be strongest in the cyclic area. We briefly speculate that the destabilization of the rodent dynamics is linked to increased seasonalforcing on the trophic interactions in which the gray-sided voles are involved.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)77-84
Number of pages8
JournalResearches on Population Ecology
Volume40
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1998

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Clethrionomys
Arvicolinae
cyclicity
Periodicity
periodicity
rodent
data analysis
Japan
trophic interaction
Rodentia
rodents
demography
seasonality
Government Agencies
Forestry
principal component analysis
forestry
Population Dynamics
behavior change
time series

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

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abstract = "We study the regional transitions in dynamics of the gray-sided vole, Clethrionomys rufocanus, within Hokkaido, Japan. The data-set consists of 225 time series of varying length (most from 23 to 31 years long) collected between 1962 and 1992 by the Forestry Agency of the Japanese Government. To see clearly how the periodic behavior changes geographically, we estimate the spectral density functions of the growth rates of all populations using a log-spline method. We subsequently apply functional data analysis to the estimated densities. The functional data analysis is, in this context, analogous to a principal component analysis applied to curves. We plot the results of the analysis on the map of Hokkaido, to reveal a clear transition from relatively stable populations in the southwest and west to populations undergoing 3-4 year cycles in the northeast and east. The degree of seasonality in the vegetation and the rodent demography appear to be strongest in the cyclic area. We briefly speculate that the destabilization of the rodent dynamics is linked to increased seasonalforcing on the trophic interactions in which the gray-sided voles are involved.",
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Mapping the Regional Transition to Cyclicity in Clethrionomys rufocanus : Spectral Densities and Functional Data Analysis. / Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Saitoh, Takashi; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.

In: Researches on Population Ecology, Vol. 40, No. 1, 01.01.1998, p. 77-84.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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