Modeling dynamic competition on crowdfunding markets

Yusan Lin, Peifeng Yin, Wang Chien Lee

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The often fierce competition on crowdfunding markets can significantly affect project success. While various factors have been considered in predicting the success of crowdfunding projects, to the best knowledge of the authors, the phenomenon of competition has not been investigated. In this paper, we study the competition on crowdfunding markets through data analysis, and propose a probabilistic generative model, Dynamic Market Competition (DMC) model, to capture the competitiveness of projects in crowdfunding. Through an empirical evaluation using the pledging history of past crowdfunding projects, our approach has shown to capture the competitiveness of projects very well, and significantly outperforms several baseline approaches in predicting the daily collected funds of crowdfunding projects, reducing errors by 31.73% to 45.14%. In addition, our analyses on the correlations between project competitiveness, project design factors, and project success indicate that highly competitive projects, while being winners under various setting of project design factors, are particularly impressive with high pledging goals and high price rewards, comparing to medium and low competitive projects. Finally, the competitiveness of projects learned by DMC is shown to be very useful in applications of predicting final success and days taken to hit pledging goal, reaching 85% accuracy and error of less than 7 days, respectively, with limited information at early pledging stage.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationThe Web Conference 2018 - Proceedings of the World Wide Web Conference, WWW 2018
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery, Inc
Pages1815-1824
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781450356398
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 10 2018
Event27th International World Wide Web, WWW 2018 - Lyon, France
Duration: Apr 23 2018Apr 27 2018

Publication series

NameThe Web Conference 2018 - Proceedings of the World Wide Web Conference, WWW 2018

Conference

Conference27th International World Wide Web, WWW 2018
CountryFrance
CityLyon
Period4/23/184/27/18

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Software

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