Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels

A. Contento, H. Xu, P. Gardoni, Stephane Guerrier

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The prediction of storm surge is an important part of risk analysis for hurricanes because storm surge is the cause of a significant amount of hurricane damage. Although still debated, the effects of climate change on hurricanes may lead to an increase in storm surge occurrences and in the related damages. Consequently, there is the need to analyze the possible consequences of climate change for several possible scenarios. However, the available models for storm surge analyses are either too computationally expensive or incapable of accounting for climate change effects. This paper proposes a random field model for storm surge predictions based on the Improved Latent Space Approach. Contrary to models available in the literature, the presented metamodel can be trained with both data coming from high-fidelity simulations and observations from historical records.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationLife-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering
Subtitle of host publicationTowards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018
EditorsDan M. Frangopol, Robby Caspeele, Luc Taerwe
PublisherCRC Press/Balkema
Pages1719-1726
Number of pages8
ISBN (Print)9781138626331
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019
Event6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018 - Ghent, Belgium
Duration: Oct 28 2018Oct 31 2018

Publication series

NameLife-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018

Conference

Conference6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018
CountryBelgium
CityGhent
Period10/28/1810/31/18

Fingerprint

Climate change
Hurricanes
Risk analysis

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

Contento, A., Xu, H., Gardoni, P., & Guerrier, S. (2019). Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels. In D. M. Frangopol, R. Caspeele, & L. Taerwe (Eds.), Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018 (pp. 1719-1726). (Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018). CRC Press/Balkema.
Contento, A. ; Xu, H. ; Gardoni, P. ; Guerrier, Stephane. / Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels. Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018. editor / Dan M. Frangopol ; Robby Caspeele ; Luc Taerwe. CRC Press/Balkema, 2019. pp. 1719-1726 (Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018).
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abstract = "The prediction of storm surge is an important part of risk analysis for hurricanes because storm surge is the cause of a significant amount of hurricane damage. Although still debated, the effects of climate change on hurricanes may lead to an increase in storm surge occurrences and in the related damages. Consequently, there is the need to analyze the possible consequences of climate change for several possible scenarios. However, the available models for storm surge analyses are either too computationally expensive or incapable of accounting for climate change effects. This paper proposes a random field model for storm surge predictions based on the Improved Latent Space Approach. Contrary to models available in the literature, the presented metamodel can be trained with both data coming from high-fidelity simulations and observations from historical records.",
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Contento, A, Xu, H, Gardoni, P & Guerrier, S 2019, Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels. in DM Frangopol, R Caspeele & L Taerwe (eds), Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018. Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018, CRC Press/Balkema, pp. 1719-1726, 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018, Ghent, Belgium, 10/28/18.

Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels. / Contento, A.; Xu, H.; Gardoni, P.; Guerrier, Stephane.

Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018. ed. / Dan M. Frangopol; Robby Caspeele; Luc Taerwe. CRC Press/Balkema, 2019. p. 1719-1726 (Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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T1 - Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels

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Contento A, Xu H, Gardoni P, Guerrier S. Modeling the climate change effects on storm surge with metamodels. In Frangopol DM, Caspeele R, Taerwe L, editors, Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018. CRC Press/Balkema. 2019. p. 1719-1726. (Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering: Towards an Integrated Vision - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2018).