TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling the Marked Presence-Only Data
T2 - A Case Study of Estimating the Female Sex Worker Size in Malawi
AU - Laga, Ian
AU - Niu, Xiaoyue
AU - Bao, Le
N1 - Funding Information:
The Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U. S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) to understand the HIV epidemic and help reach the 90-90-90 target (Measure Evaluation ). PLACE was developed to address the local behavior of HIV transmission. In 2016, The University of North Carolina implemented the PLACE I study in Malawi, surveying five districts (Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mangochi, Machinga, and Zomba) and one city (Mzuzu). Through additional funding, the PLACE II study was implemented in 15 additional districts, including the rest of Mzimba, the district for Mzuzu. The four main objectives enumerated in the PLACE report (2018) are (i) to conduct programmatic mapping in selected district to identify venues where key populations can be reached, (ii) to estimate the size of key population in each district who can be reached at venues, (iii) to characterize HIV service coverage indicators for HIV programs reaching key populations, (iv) in a subset of districts, to survey and test members of key population groups. includes a map of the visited venues in the Lilongwe district (UNC et al. ). We can see that venues are highly clustered and typically lie along major roads or near the city center.
Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01AI136664.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 American Statistical Association.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Certain subpopulations like female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) often have higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS and are difficult to map directly due to stigma, discrimination, and criminalization. Fine-scale mapping of those populations contributes to the progress toward reducing the inequalities and ending the AIDS epidemic. In 2016 and 2017, the PLACE surveys were conducted at 3290 venues in 20 out of the total 28 districts in Malawi to estimate the FSW sizes. These venues represent a presence-only dataset where, instead of knowing both where people live and do not live (presence–absence data), only information about visited locations is available. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model for presence-only data and utilize the PLACE data to estimate the FSW size and uncertainty interval at a (Formula presented.) -km resolution for all of Malawi. The estimates can also be aggregated to any desirable level (city/district/region) for implementing targeted HIV prevention and treatment programs in FSW communities, which have been successful in lowering the incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
AB - Certain subpopulations like female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) often have higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS and are difficult to map directly due to stigma, discrimination, and criminalization. Fine-scale mapping of those populations contributes to the progress toward reducing the inequalities and ending the AIDS epidemic. In 2016 and 2017, the PLACE surveys were conducted at 3290 venues in 20 out of the total 28 districts in Malawi to estimate the FSW sizes. These venues represent a presence-only dataset where, instead of knowing both where people live and do not live (presence–absence data), only information about visited locations is available. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model for presence-only data and utilize the PLACE data to estimate the FSW size and uncertainty interval at a (Formula presented.) -km resolution for all of Malawi. The estimates can also be aggregated to any desirable level (city/district/region) for implementing targeted HIV prevention and treatment programs in FSW communities, which have been successful in lowering the incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.
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U2 - 10.1080/01621459.2021.1944873
DO - 10.1080/01621459.2021.1944873
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85112654741
SN - 0162-1459
VL - 117
SP - 27
EP - 37
JO - Journal of the American Statistical Association
JF - Journal of the American Statistical Association
IS - 537
ER -
