Modeling Two Types of Peace: The Zero-inflated Ordered Probit (ZiOP) Model in Conflict Research

Benjamin E. Bagozzi, Daniel W. Hill, Will H. Moore, Subhanan Mukherjee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A growing body of applied research on political violence employs split-population models to address problems of zero inflation in conflict event counts and related binary dependent variables. Nevertheless, conflict researchers typically use standard ordered probit models to study discrete ordered dependent variables characterized by excessive zeros (e.g., levels of conflict). This study familiarizes conflict scholars with a recently proposed split-population model—the zero-inflated ordered probit (ZiOP) model—that explicitly addresses the econometric challenges that researchers face when using a “zero-inflated” ordered dependent variable. We show that the ZiOP model provides more than an econometric fix: it provides substantively rich information about the heterogeneous pool of “peace” observations that exist in zero-inflated ordinal variables that measure violent conflict. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model through Monte Carlo experiments and replications of published work and also show that the substantive effects of covariates derived from the ZiOP model can reveal nonmonotonic relationships between these covariates and one’s conflict probabilities of interest.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)728-752
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Conflict Resolution
Volume59
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 5 2015

Fingerprint

conflict research
peace
econometrics
political violence
inflation
Peace
Modeling
Ordered probit model
event
experiment

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

Cite this

Bagozzi, Benjamin E. ; Hill, Daniel W. ; Moore, Will H. ; Mukherjee, Subhanan. / Modeling Two Types of Peace : The Zero-inflated Ordered Probit (ZiOP) Model in Conflict Research. In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2015 ; Vol. 59, No. 4. pp. 728-752.
@article{a0875152844e467ca2143244dad543c3,
title = "Modeling Two Types of Peace: The Zero-inflated Ordered Probit (ZiOP) Model in Conflict Research",
abstract = "A growing body of applied research on political violence employs split-population models to address problems of zero inflation in conflict event counts and related binary dependent variables. Nevertheless, conflict researchers typically use standard ordered probit models to study discrete ordered dependent variables characterized by excessive zeros (e.g., levels of conflict). This study familiarizes conflict scholars with a recently proposed split-population model—the zero-inflated ordered probit (ZiOP) model—that explicitly addresses the econometric challenges that researchers face when using a “zero-inflated” ordered dependent variable. We show that the ZiOP model provides more than an econometric fix: it provides substantively rich information about the heterogeneous pool of “peace” observations that exist in zero-inflated ordinal variables that measure violent conflict. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model through Monte Carlo experiments and replications of published work and also show that the substantive effects of covariates derived from the ZiOP model can reveal nonmonotonic relationships between these covariates and one’s conflict probabilities of interest.",
author = "Bagozzi, {Benjamin E.} and Hill, {Daniel W.} and Moore, {Will H.} and Subhanan Mukherjee",
year = "2015",
month = "6",
day = "5",
doi = "10.1177/0022002713520530",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "59",
pages = "728--752",
journal = "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
issn = "0022-0027",
publisher = "SAGE Publications Inc.",
number = "4",

}

Modeling Two Types of Peace : The Zero-inflated Ordered Probit (ZiOP) Model in Conflict Research. / Bagozzi, Benjamin E.; Hill, Daniel W.; Moore, Will H.; Mukherjee, Subhanan.

In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 59, No. 4, 05.06.2015, p. 728-752.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling Two Types of Peace

T2 - The Zero-inflated Ordered Probit (ZiOP) Model in Conflict Research

AU - Bagozzi, Benjamin E.

AU - Hill, Daniel W.

AU - Moore, Will H.

AU - Mukherjee, Subhanan

PY - 2015/6/5

Y1 - 2015/6/5

N2 - A growing body of applied research on political violence employs split-population models to address problems of zero inflation in conflict event counts and related binary dependent variables. Nevertheless, conflict researchers typically use standard ordered probit models to study discrete ordered dependent variables characterized by excessive zeros (e.g., levels of conflict). This study familiarizes conflict scholars with a recently proposed split-population model—the zero-inflated ordered probit (ZiOP) model—that explicitly addresses the econometric challenges that researchers face when using a “zero-inflated” ordered dependent variable. We show that the ZiOP model provides more than an econometric fix: it provides substantively rich information about the heterogeneous pool of “peace” observations that exist in zero-inflated ordinal variables that measure violent conflict. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model through Monte Carlo experiments and replications of published work and also show that the substantive effects of covariates derived from the ZiOP model can reveal nonmonotonic relationships between these covariates and one’s conflict probabilities of interest.

AB - A growing body of applied research on political violence employs split-population models to address problems of zero inflation in conflict event counts and related binary dependent variables. Nevertheless, conflict researchers typically use standard ordered probit models to study discrete ordered dependent variables characterized by excessive zeros (e.g., levels of conflict). This study familiarizes conflict scholars with a recently proposed split-population model—the zero-inflated ordered probit (ZiOP) model—that explicitly addresses the econometric challenges that researchers face when using a “zero-inflated” ordered dependent variable. We show that the ZiOP model provides more than an econometric fix: it provides substantively rich information about the heterogeneous pool of “peace” observations that exist in zero-inflated ordinal variables that measure violent conflict. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model through Monte Carlo experiments and replications of published work and also show that the substantive effects of covariates derived from the ZiOP model can reveal nonmonotonic relationships between these covariates and one’s conflict probabilities of interest.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84930467859&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84930467859&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/0022002713520530

DO - 10.1177/0022002713520530

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84930467859

VL - 59

SP - 728

EP - 752

JO - Journal of Conflict Resolution

JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution

SN - 0022-0027

IS - 4

ER -