### Abstract

Orbit determination in application to the estimation of impact probability has the goal of determining the evolution of the state probability density function (pdf) and determining a measure of the probability of collision. Nonlinear gravitational interaction and non-conservative forces can make the pdf far from Gaussian. This work implements three nonlinear sequential estimators: the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) and the Particle Filter (PF) to estimate the impact probability. Both the EKF and the UKF make the Gaussian assumption and this work investigates the effect of this approximation on the impact probability calculation, while the PF can work for non-Gaussian systems.

Original language | English (US) |
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Title of host publication | Spaceflight Mechanics 2010 - Advances in the Astronautical Sciences |

Subtitle of host publication | Proceedings of the AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting |

Pages | 787-806 |

Number of pages | 20 |

State | Published - Dec 1 2010 |

Event | AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting - San Diego, CA, United States Duration: Feb 14 2010 → Feb 17 2010 |

### Publication series

Name | Advances in the Astronautical Sciences |
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Volume | 136 |

ISSN (Print) | 0065-3438 |

### Other

Other | AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting |
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Country | United States |

City | San Diego, CA |

Period | 2/14/10 → 2/17/10 |

### All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

- Aerospace Engineering
- Space and Planetary Science

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## Cite this

*Spaceflight Mechanics 2010 - Advances in the Astronautical Sciences: Proceedings of the AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting*(pp. 787-806). (Advances in the Astronautical Sciences; Vol. 136).