North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections

Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David NeelinZaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, Ming Zhao

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148 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In part III of a three-part study onNorthAmerican climate in phase 5 of theCoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regionalmanifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and NorthAtlantic tropical cyclone activity and NorthAmerican intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistentwith those previously published forCMIP3, althoughCMIP5model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Althoughmany projected changes inNorth American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summerArctic sea ice extent, themagnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2230-2270
Number of pages41
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume27
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

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twenty first century
climate
tropical cyclone
experiment
snow water equivalent
storm track
teleconnection
extreme event
sea ice
climate change
CMIP
temperature

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Maloney, E. D., Camargo, S. J., Chang, E., Colle, B., Fu, R., Geil, K. L., ... Zhao, M. (2014). North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections. Journal of Climate, 27(6), 2230-2270. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1
Maloney, Eric D. ; Camargo, Suzana J. ; Chang, Edmund ; Colle, Brian ; Fu, Rong ; Geil, Kerrie L. ; Hu, Qi ; Jiang, Xianan ; Johnson, Nathaniel ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Kinter, James ; Kirtman, Benjamin ; Kumar, Sanjiv ; Langenbrunner, Baird ; Lombardo, Kelly ; Long, Lindsey N. ; Mariotti, Annarita ; Meyerson, Joyce E. ; Mo, Kingtse C. ; Neelin, J. David ; Pan, Zaitao ; Seager, Richard ; Serra, Yolande ; Seth, Anji ; Sheffield, Justin ; Stroeve, Julienne ; Thibeault, Jeanne ; Xie, Shang Ping ; Wang, Chunzai ; Wyman, Bruce ; Zhao, Ming. / North American climate in CMIP5 experiments : Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections. In: Journal of Climate. 2014 ; Vol. 27, No. 6. pp. 2230-2270.
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abstract = "In part III of a three-part study onNorthAmerican climate in phase 5 of theCoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regionalmanifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and NorthAtlantic tropical cyclone activity and NorthAmerican intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistentwith those previously published forCMIP3, althoughCMIP5model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Althoughmany projected changes inNorth American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summerArctic sea ice extent, themagnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.",
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Maloney, ED, Camargo, SJ, Chang, E, Colle, B, Fu, R, Geil, KL, Hu, Q, Jiang, X, Johnson, N, Karnauskas, KB, Kinter, J, Kirtman, B, Kumar, S, Langenbrunner, B, Lombardo, K, Long, LN, Mariotti, A, Meyerson, JE, Mo, KC, Neelin, JD, Pan, Z, Seager, R, Serra, Y, Seth, A, Sheffield, J, Stroeve, J, Thibeault, J, Xie, SP, Wang, C, Wyman, B & Zhao, M 2014, 'North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections', Journal of Climate, vol. 27, no. 6, pp. 2230-2270. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1

North American climate in CMIP5 experiments : Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections. / Maloney, Eric D.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chang, Edmund; Colle, Brian; Fu, Rong; Geil, Kerrie L.; Hu, Qi; Jiang, Xianan; Johnson, Nathaniel; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Kinter, James; Kirtman, Benjamin; Kumar, Sanjiv; Langenbrunner, Baird; Lombardo, Kelly; Long, Lindsey N.; Mariotti, Annarita; Meyerson, Joyce E.; Mo, Kingtse C.; Neelin, J. David; Pan, Zaitao; Seager, Richard; Serra, Yolande; Seth, Anji; Sheffield, Justin; Stroeve, Julienne; Thibeault, Jeanne; Xie, Shang Ping; Wang, Chunzai; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, No. 6, 01.01.2014, p. 2230-2270.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T2 - Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections

AU - Maloney, Eric D.

AU - Camargo, Suzana J.

AU - Chang, Edmund

AU - Colle, Brian

AU - Fu, Rong

AU - Geil, Kerrie L.

AU - Hu, Qi

AU - Jiang, Xianan

AU - Johnson, Nathaniel

AU - Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

AU - Kinter, James

AU - Kirtman, Benjamin

AU - Kumar, Sanjiv

AU - Langenbrunner, Baird

AU - Lombardo, Kelly

AU - Long, Lindsey N.

AU - Mariotti, Annarita

AU - Meyerson, Joyce E.

AU - Mo, Kingtse C.

AU - Neelin, J. David

AU - Pan, Zaitao

AU - Seager, Richard

AU - Serra, Yolande

AU - Seth, Anji

AU - Sheffield, Justin

AU - Stroeve, Julienne

AU - Thibeault, Jeanne

AU - Xie, Shang Ping

AU - Wang, Chunzai

AU - Wyman, Bruce

AU - Zhao, Ming

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N2 - In part III of a three-part study onNorthAmerican climate in phase 5 of theCoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regionalmanifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and NorthAtlantic tropical cyclone activity and NorthAmerican intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistentwith those previously published forCMIP3, althoughCMIP5model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Althoughmany projected changes inNorth American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summerArctic sea ice extent, themagnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.

AB - In part III of a three-part study onNorthAmerican climate in phase 5 of theCoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regionalmanifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and NorthAtlantic tropical cyclone activity and NorthAmerican intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistentwith those previously published forCMIP3, althoughCMIP5model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Althoughmany projected changes inNorth American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summerArctic sea ice extent, themagnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.

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