OBEST: An observation-based ensemble subsetting technique for tropical cyclone track prediction

Lin Dong, Fuqing Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus citations

Abstract

An observation-based ensemble subsetting technique (OBEST) is developed for tropical cyclone track prediction in which a subset of members from either a single- or multimodel ensemble is selected based on the distance from the latest best-track position. The performance of OBEST is examined using both the 2-yr hindcasts for 2010-11 and the 2-yr operational predictions during 2012-13. It is found that OBEST outperforms both the simple ensemble mean (without subsetting) and the corresponding deterministic high-resolution control forecast for most forecast lead times up to 5 days. Applying OBEST to a superensemble of global ensembles from both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction yielded a further reduction in track forecast errors by 5%-10% for lead times of 24-120 h.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)57-70
Number of pages14
JournalWeather and Forecasting
Volume31
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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