Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere

T. L. Delworth, Michael Mann

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

825 Scopus citations

Abstract

Analyses of proxy based reconstructions of surface temperatures during the past 330 years show the existence of a distinct oscillatory mode of variability with an approximate time scale of 70 years. This variability is also seen in instrumental records, although the oscillatory nature of the variability is difficult to assess due to the short length of the instrumental record. The spatial pattern of this variability is hemisphere or perhaps even global in scale, but with particular emphasis on the Atlantic region. Independent analyses of multi-century integrations of two versions of the GFDL coupled atmosphere-ocean model also show the existence of distinct multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic region which resembles the observed pattern. The model variability involves fluctuations in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. It is our intent here to provide a direct comparison of the observed variability to that simulated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, making use of both existing instrumental analyses and newly available proxy based multi-century surface temperature estimates. The analyses demonstrate a substantial agreement between the simulated and observed patterns of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic. There is much less agreement between the model and observations for sea level pressure. Seasonal analyses of the variability demonstrate that for both the model and observations SST appears to be the primary carrier of the multidecadal signal.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)661-676
Number of pages16
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume16
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 18 2000

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this