On the predictability of economic events.

James Schuyler Jordan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Grunberg and Modigliani investigated the existence of a public prediction which, if believed by economic decision makers, would prove correct. This research is continued using a model of general exchange equilibrium under uncertainty. The principal result is that unless the public prediction is based on a very narrow class of data, a statistically correct prediction may fail to exist even for otherwise well-behaved economies. - Author

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)955-972
Number of pages18
JournalEconometrica
Volume48
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1980

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics

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