On the use of statistics in design and the implications for deterministic computer experiments

Timothy W. Simpson, Jesse Peplinski, Patrick N. Koch, Janet K. Allen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

147 Scopus citations

Abstract

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design-using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-To-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-Trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication9th International Design Theory and Methodology Conference
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
ISBN (Electronic)9780791880456
DOIs
StatePublished - 1997
EventASME 1997 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, DETC 1997 - Sacramento, United States
Duration: Sep 14 1997Sep 17 1997

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
Volume3

Conference

ConferenceASME 1997 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, DETC 1997
CountryUnited States
CitySacramento
Period9/14/979/17/97

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Modeling and Simulation

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