The NOAA SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2003 tested an ensemble generation method in which human forecasters were involved in the ensemble creation process. A customized ensemble provided guidance on the severe weather threat over the following 48 h. Using an adjoint, a set of perturbations was obtained and used to generate a 32-member ensemble. Results show that the experimental ensemble improves upon the operational numerical forecasts of severe weather and produces better probabilistic forecasts of heavy precipitation.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Number of pages||2|
|Journal||Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|
|State||Published - Aug 1 2006|
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Atmospheric Science