Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle

C. M. Herzog, W. A. de Glanville, B. J. Willett, T. J. Kibona, I. M. Cattadori, V. Kapur, P. J. Hudson, J. Buza, S. Cleaveland, O. N. Bjørnstad

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere242
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume147
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

Fingerprint

Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants
Tanzania
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Goats
Sheep
Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus
Confidence Intervals
Mortality
Ruminants
Infection
Morbidity

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

@article{c3dc5b8abe5245c1b1bfc07102017953,
title = "Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle",
abstract = "Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1{\%} (95{\%} exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8{\%} seroprevalence among agropastoral (95{\%} CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7{\%} among pastoral villages (95{\%} CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95{\%} CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95{\%} CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95{\%} CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.",
author = "Herzog, {C. M.} and {de Glanville}, {W. A.} and Willett, {B. J.} and Kibona, {T. J.} and Cattadori, {I. M.} and V. Kapur and Hudson, {P. J.} and J. Buza and S. Cleaveland and Bj{\o}rnstad, {O. N.}",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
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doi = "10.1017/S0950268819001262",
language = "English (US)",
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journal = "Epidemiology and Infection",
issn = "0950-2688",
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Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle. / Herzog, C. M.; de Glanville, W. A.; Willett, B. J.; Kibona, T. J.; Cattadori, I. M.; Kapur, V.; Hudson, P. J.; Buza, J.; Cleaveland, S.; Bjørnstad, O. N.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 147, e242, 01.01.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle

AU - Herzog, C. M.

AU - de Glanville, W. A.

AU - Willett, B. J.

AU - Kibona, T. J.

AU - Cattadori, I. M.

AU - Kapur, V.

AU - Hudson, P. J.

AU - Buza, J.

AU - Cleaveland, S.

AU - Bjørnstad, O. N.

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.

AB - Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.

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