Performance evaluation of an air quality forecast modeling system for a summer and winter season - Photochemical oxidants and their precursors

Chenxia Cai, Christian Hogrefe, Petros Katsafados, George Kallos, Mark Beauharnois, James J. Schwab, Xinrong Ren, William Henry Brune, Xianliang Zhou, Yi He, Kenneth L. Demerjian

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The predictions of O3, precursor species and the key transit species from an Air Quality Forecast Modeling System (AQFMS) are evaluated for July 2001 and January 2004 utilizing an extensive measurement data set from the PMTACS-NY "Supersite" program. The AQFMS, consisting of a chemical transport model coupled with a mesoscale meteorological forecasting model, operated routinely over the course of the six-year study. The domain-wide 8-h average O3 predictions in the summer season have an average mean normalized bias (MNB) of 8.6%. The AQFMS captured the day-to-day variations of O3, CO, NOx (NOy) and SO2 at the Queens College (urban) and Pinnacle State Park (rural) sites during both summer and winter. During July 2001, the linear regressions of CO vs. NOx at Queens College and CO vs. NOy at Pinnacle State Park are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, during January 2004 the slopes of the linear regressions are significantly overestimated suggesting more uncertainties with the winter emission inventories. The Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is under predicted by 45% at Pinnacle State Park during July 2001 which may be caused by the underestimation of NOz removal and/or the underestimation of OH concentrations. Concentrations of HONO, a key transient species for OH production are significantly under predicted by the AQFMS indicating deficiencies in the chemical mechanism in the AQFMS. The underestimation of OH concentrations is much more significant during January 2004 which suggests larger uncertainties with chemical mechanism for winter conditions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)8585-8599
Number of pages15
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume42
Issue number37
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2008

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air quality
winter
summer
modeling
emission inventory
prediction
ozone
photochemical oxidant
evaluation
forecast
chemical

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Cai, Chenxia ; Hogrefe, Christian ; Katsafados, Petros ; Kallos, George ; Beauharnois, Mark ; Schwab, James J. ; Ren, Xinrong ; Brune, William Henry ; Zhou, Xianliang ; He, Yi ; Demerjian, Kenneth L. / Performance evaluation of an air quality forecast modeling system for a summer and winter season - Photochemical oxidants and their precursors. In: Atmospheric Environment. 2008 ; Vol. 42, No. 37. pp. 8585-8599.
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abstract = "The predictions of O3, precursor species and the key transit species from an Air Quality Forecast Modeling System (AQFMS) are evaluated for July 2001 and January 2004 utilizing an extensive measurement data set from the PMTACS-NY {"}Supersite{"} program. The AQFMS, consisting of a chemical transport model coupled with a mesoscale meteorological forecasting model, operated routinely over the course of the six-year study. The domain-wide 8-h average O3 predictions in the summer season have an average mean normalized bias (MNB) of 8.6{\%}. The AQFMS captured the day-to-day variations of O3, CO, NOx (NOy) and SO2 at the Queens College (urban) and Pinnacle State Park (rural) sites during both summer and winter. During July 2001, the linear regressions of CO vs. NOx at Queens College and CO vs. NOy at Pinnacle State Park are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, during January 2004 the slopes of the linear regressions are significantly overestimated suggesting more uncertainties with the winter emission inventories. The Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is under predicted by 45{\%} at Pinnacle State Park during July 2001 which may be caused by the underestimation of NOz removal and/or the underestimation of OH concentrations. Concentrations of HONO, a key transient species for OH production are significantly under predicted by the AQFMS indicating deficiencies in the chemical mechanism in the AQFMS. The underestimation of OH concentrations is much more significant during January 2004 which suggests larger uncertainties with chemical mechanism for winter conditions.",
author = "Chenxia Cai and Christian Hogrefe and Petros Katsafados and George Kallos and Mark Beauharnois and Schwab, {James J.} and Xinrong Ren and Brune, {William Henry} and Xianliang Zhou and Yi He and Demerjian, {Kenneth L.}",
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Cai, C, Hogrefe, C, Katsafados, P, Kallos, G, Beauharnois, M, Schwab, JJ, Ren, X, Brune, WH, Zhou, X, He, Y & Demerjian, KL 2008, 'Performance evaluation of an air quality forecast modeling system for a summer and winter season - Photochemical oxidants and their precursors', Atmospheric Environment, vol. 42, no. 37, pp. 8585-8599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.08.029

Performance evaluation of an air quality forecast modeling system for a summer and winter season - Photochemical oxidants and their precursors. / Cai, Chenxia; Hogrefe, Christian; Katsafados, Petros; Kallos, George; Beauharnois, Mark; Schwab, James J.; Ren, Xinrong; Brune, William Henry; Zhou, Xianliang; He, Yi; Demerjian, Kenneth L.

In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 42, No. 37, 01.12.2008, p. 8585-8599.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Cai, Chenxia

AU - Hogrefe, Christian

AU - Katsafados, Petros

AU - Kallos, George

AU - Beauharnois, Mark

AU - Schwab, James J.

AU - Ren, Xinrong

AU - Brune, William Henry

AU - Zhou, Xianliang

AU - He, Yi

AU - Demerjian, Kenneth L.

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N2 - The predictions of O3, precursor species and the key transit species from an Air Quality Forecast Modeling System (AQFMS) are evaluated for July 2001 and January 2004 utilizing an extensive measurement data set from the PMTACS-NY "Supersite" program. The AQFMS, consisting of a chemical transport model coupled with a mesoscale meteorological forecasting model, operated routinely over the course of the six-year study. The domain-wide 8-h average O3 predictions in the summer season have an average mean normalized bias (MNB) of 8.6%. The AQFMS captured the day-to-day variations of O3, CO, NOx (NOy) and SO2 at the Queens College (urban) and Pinnacle State Park (rural) sites during both summer and winter. During July 2001, the linear regressions of CO vs. NOx at Queens College and CO vs. NOy at Pinnacle State Park are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, during January 2004 the slopes of the linear regressions are significantly overestimated suggesting more uncertainties with the winter emission inventories. The Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is under predicted by 45% at Pinnacle State Park during July 2001 which may be caused by the underestimation of NOz removal and/or the underestimation of OH concentrations. Concentrations of HONO, a key transient species for OH production are significantly under predicted by the AQFMS indicating deficiencies in the chemical mechanism in the AQFMS. The underestimation of OH concentrations is much more significant during January 2004 which suggests larger uncertainties with chemical mechanism for winter conditions.

AB - The predictions of O3, precursor species and the key transit species from an Air Quality Forecast Modeling System (AQFMS) are evaluated for July 2001 and January 2004 utilizing an extensive measurement data set from the PMTACS-NY "Supersite" program. The AQFMS, consisting of a chemical transport model coupled with a mesoscale meteorological forecasting model, operated routinely over the course of the six-year study. The domain-wide 8-h average O3 predictions in the summer season have an average mean normalized bias (MNB) of 8.6%. The AQFMS captured the day-to-day variations of O3, CO, NOx (NOy) and SO2 at the Queens College (urban) and Pinnacle State Park (rural) sites during both summer and winter. During July 2001, the linear regressions of CO vs. NOx at Queens College and CO vs. NOy at Pinnacle State Park are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, during January 2004 the slopes of the linear regressions are significantly overestimated suggesting more uncertainties with the winter emission inventories. The Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is under predicted by 45% at Pinnacle State Park during July 2001 which may be caused by the underestimation of NOz removal and/or the underestimation of OH concentrations. Concentrations of HONO, a key transient species for OH production are significantly under predicted by the AQFMS indicating deficiencies in the chemical mechanism in the AQFMS. The underestimation of OH concentrations is much more significant during January 2004 which suggests larger uncertainties with chemical mechanism for winter conditions.

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