Persistence in Epidemic Metapopulations

Quantifying the Rescue Effects for Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Whooping Cough

C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Katie Hampson, Andrew J. Tatem, Bryan T. Grenfell, Ottar N. Bjornstad

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere74696
JournalPloS one
Volume8
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 9 2013

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whooping cough
Mumps
Rubella
Whooping Cough
Measles
Disease control
Islands
extinction
Infection
infection
Vaccines
birth rate
Economic Development
Birth Rate
relative risk
economic development
demography
childhood
Economics
disease control

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Metcalf, C. Jessica E. ; Hampson, Katie ; Tatem, Andrew J. ; Grenfell, Bryan T. ; Bjornstad, Ottar N. / Persistence in Epidemic Metapopulations : Quantifying the Rescue Effects for Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Whooping Cough. In: PloS one. 2013 ; Vol. 8, No. 9.
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Persistence in Epidemic Metapopulations : Quantifying the Rescue Effects for Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Whooping Cough. / Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Hampson, Katie; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.

In: PloS one, Vol. 8, No. 9, e74696, 09.09.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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