Population projection accuracy: The impacts of sociodemographics, accessibility, land use, and neighbour characteristics

Guangqing Chi, Donghui Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Population projection is essential to governments, businesses, and research communities for many purposes. Although projection performance is often evaluated, we know very little about what factors affect projection accuracy. It is important to understand these factors in order to utilise the projections knowledgeably. This study fills this gap in the literature by comprehensively investigating the possible factors associated with population projection accuracy in 2010 for the continental U.S. counties. The results indicate that the counties whose populations are more predictable tend to be desirable places—places with abundant employment opportunities, reliable public transportation infrastructure, easy access to work, and/or high land development potential; their neighbouring counties tend to have a well-educated population and a higher income level. Also, projection accuracy is highly spatially associated. The findings provide important insights for population projection users to understand the characteristics of counties and their neighbouring counties associated with their projection accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2129
JournalPopulation, Space and Place
Volume24
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2018

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accessibility
projection
land use
transportation infrastructure
development potential
county
public transportation
income
employment opportunity
infrastructure
community
performance

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Demography
  • Geography, Planning and Development

Cite this

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Population projection accuracy : The impacts of sociodemographics, accessibility, land use, and neighbour characteristics. / Chi, Guangqing; Wang, Donghui.

In: Population, Space and Place, Vol. 24, No. 5, e2129, 01.07.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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