Potential biases in inferring Holocene temperature trends from long-term borehole information

Michael Mann, Gavin A. Schmidt, Sonya Miller, Allegra N. LeGrande

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We use a set of global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation (OAGCM) experiments for timeslices over the Holocene from 9K Yr BP onwards to examine differences in Northern Hemisphere Ground Surface Temperature (GST) and Surface Air Temperature (SAT) trends. The model results are driven mainly by the orbitallyforced changes in seasonal insolation, and in particular, the increase in northern hemisphere seasonality in the earlyto-mid Holocene. The model reproduces qualitatively presumed past trends in NH temperatures, though it may underestimate their magnitude. For this period, we see on average a significant increase in GST relative to SAT as a result of a competition between the effects of changing seasonal insolation, and the varying extent of insulating seasonal snow cover. The model shows a mid-Holocene peak in annual mean terrestrial Northern Hemisphere GST, but not in annual Surface Air Temperatures (SAT). We conclude that the factors influencing long-term GST trends are potentially quite complex, and that considerable care must be taken in interpreting SAT changes from the GST evidence when there is the possibility of substantial seasonal variation in warmth and snow cover.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL05708
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume36
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 16 2009

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boreholes
surface temperature
borehole
Holocene
trends
Northern Hemisphere
snow cover
insolation
air
temperature
air temperature
annual variations
oceans
trend
atmospheres
seasonality
seasonal variation
atmosphere
ocean

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Mann, Michael ; Schmidt, Gavin A. ; Miller, Sonya ; LeGrande, Allegra N. / Potential biases in inferring Holocene temperature trends from long-term borehole information. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2009 ; Vol. 36, No. 5.
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Potential biases in inferring Holocene temperature trends from long-term borehole information. / Mann, Michael; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Sonya; LeGrande, Allegra N.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, No. 5, L05708, 16.03.2009.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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