Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa

Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Laifang Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)7152-7159
Number of pages8
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume43
Issue number13
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 16 2016

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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