Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures

Rachael A. Bay, Noah Rose, Rowan Barrett, Louis Bernatchez, Cameron K. Ghalambor, Jesse R. Lasky, Rachel B. Brem, Stephen R. Palumbi, Peter Ralph

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rapid environmental change currently presents a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and understanding impacts on individual populations is critical to creating reliable predictions and mitigation plans. One emerging tool for this goal is high-throughput sequencing technology, which can now be used to scan the genome for signs of environmental selection in any species and any system. This explosion of data provides a powerful new window into the molecular mechanisms of adaptation, and although there has been some success in using genomic data to predict responses to selection in fields such as agriculture, thus far genomic data are rarely integrated into predictive frameworks of future adaptation in natural populations. Here, we review both theoretical and empirical studies of adaptation to rapid environmental change, focusing on areas where genomic data are poised to contribute to our ability to estimate species and population persistence and adaptation. We advocate for the need to study and model evolutionary response architectures, which integrate spatial information, fitness estimates, and plasticity with genetic architecture. Understanding how these factors contribute to adaptive responses is essential in efforts to predict the responses of species and ecosystems to future environmental change.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)463-473
Number of pages11
JournalAmerican Naturalist
Volume189
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

Fingerprint

environmental change
genomics
ecosystems
explosions
ecosystem function
biodiversity
agriculture
plasticity
explosion
fitness
mitigation
genome
prediction
persistence
ecosystem

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Bay, R. A., Rose, N., Barrett, R., Bernatchez, L., Ghalambor, C. K., Lasky, J. R., ... Ralph, P. (2017). Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures. American Naturalist, 189(5), 463-473. https://doi.org/10.1086/691233
Bay, Rachael A. ; Rose, Noah ; Barrett, Rowan ; Bernatchez, Louis ; Ghalambor, Cameron K. ; Lasky, Jesse R. ; Brem, Rachel B. ; Palumbi, Stephen R. ; Ralph, Peter. / Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures. In: American Naturalist. 2017 ; Vol. 189, No. 5. pp. 463-473.
@article{aa302e036a014094a99adfa96e8b7e5e,
title = "Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures",
abstract = "Rapid environmental change currently presents a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and understanding impacts on individual populations is critical to creating reliable predictions and mitigation plans. One emerging tool for this goal is high-throughput sequencing technology, which can now be used to scan the genome for signs of environmental selection in any species and any system. This explosion of data provides a powerful new window into the molecular mechanisms of adaptation, and although there has been some success in using genomic data to predict responses to selection in fields such as agriculture, thus far genomic data are rarely integrated into predictive frameworks of future adaptation in natural populations. Here, we review both theoretical and empirical studies of adaptation to rapid environmental change, focusing on areas where genomic data are poised to contribute to our ability to estimate species and population persistence and adaptation. We advocate for the need to study and model evolutionary response architectures, which integrate spatial information, fitness estimates, and plasticity with genetic architecture. Understanding how these factors contribute to adaptive responses is essential in efforts to predict the responses of species and ecosystems to future environmental change.",
author = "Bay, {Rachael A.} and Noah Rose and Rowan Barrett and Louis Bernatchez and Ghalambor, {Cameron K.} and Lasky, {Jesse R.} and Brem, {Rachel B.} and Palumbi, {Stephen R.} and Peter Ralph",
year = "2017",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1086/691233",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "189",
pages = "463--473",
journal = "American Naturalist",
issn = "0003-0147",
publisher = "University of Chicago",
number = "5",

}

Bay, RA, Rose, N, Barrett, R, Bernatchez, L, Ghalambor, CK, Lasky, JR, Brem, RB, Palumbi, SR & Ralph, P 2017, 'Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures', American Naturalist, vol. 189, no. 5, pp. 463-473. https://doi.org/10.1086/691233

Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures. / Bay, Rachael A.; Rose, Noah; Barrett, Rowan; Bernatchez, Louis; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Lasky, Jesse R.; Brem, Rachel B.; Palumbi, Stephen R.; Ralph, Peter.

In: American Naturalist, Vol. 189, No. 5, 01.01.2017, p. 463-473.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting responses to contemporary environmental change using evolutionary response architectures

AU - Bay, Rachael A.

AU - Rose, Noah

AU - Barrett, Rowan

AU - Bernatchez, Louis

AU - Ghalambor, Cameron K.

AU - Lasky, Jesse R.

AU - Brem, Rachel B.

AU - Palumbi, Stephen R.

AU - Ralph, Peter

PY - 2017/1/1

Y1 - 2017/1/1

N2 - Rapid environmental change currently presents a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and understanding impacts on individual populations is critical to creating reliable predictions and mitigation plans. One emerging tool for this goal is high-throughput sequencing technology, which can now be used to scan the genome for signs of environmental selection in any species and any system. This explosion of data provides a powerful new window into the molecular mechanisms of adaptation, and although there has been some success in using genomic data to predict responses to selection in fields such as agriculture, thus far genomic data are rarely integrated into predictive frameworks of future adaptation in natural populations. Here, we review both theoretical and empirical studies of adaptation to rapid environmental change, focusing on areas where genomic data are poised to contribute to our ability to estimate species and population persistence and adaptation. We advocate for the need to study and model evolutionary response architectures, which integrate spatial information, fitness estimates, and plasticity with genetic architecture. Understanding how these factors contribute to adaptive responses is essential in efforts to predict the responses of species and ecosystems to future environmental change.

AB - Rapid environmental change currently presents a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and understanding impacts on individual populations is critical to creating reliable predictions and mitigation plans. One emerging tool for this goal is high-throughput sequencing technology, which can now be used to scan the genome for signs of environmental selection in any species and any system. This explosion of data provides a powerful new window into the molecular mechanisms of adaptation, and although there has been some success in using genomic data to predict responses to selection in fields such as agriculture, thus far genomic data are rarely integrated into predictive frameworks of future adaptation in natural populations. Here, we review both theoretical and empirical studies of adaptation to rapid environmental change, focusing on areas where genomic data are poised to contribute to our ability to estimate species and population persistence and adaptation. We advocate for the need to study and model evolutionary response architectures, which integrate spatial information, fitness estimates, and plasticity with genetic architecture. Understanding how these factors contribute to adaptive responses is essential in efforts to predict the responses of species and ecosystems to future environmental change.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85018194063&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85018194063&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1086/691233

DO - 10.1086/691233

M3 - Article

VL - 189

SP - 463

EP - 473

JO - American Naturalist

JF - American Naturalist

SN - 0003-0147

IS - 5

ER -