Predictive modeling of large scale historic masonry monuments: Uncertainty quantification and model validation

Sez Atamturktur, Saurabh Prabhu, Gregory Roche

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This paper focuses on establishing confidence in model predictions through the validation of numerical models with a specific focus on large scale masonry structures. Through an overview of various case study applications, this presentation will discuss the relevant phases of model validation: numerical model development, field experimentation, model calibration and validation. The main goals of this paper are (i) to discuss where modeling errors and uncertainties originate and (ii) to present an approach to obtain model predictions that are statistically consistent with their respective measurements. Our approach considers all major sources of error and uncertainty, which originate from the numerical solutions of differential equations (numerical uncertainty), imprecise model input parameter values (parameter uncertainty), incomplete definitions of underlying physics due to assumptions and idealizations (bias error) and variability in measurements (experimental uncertainty). This paper provides an overview of the best-practices for developing finite element models for large-scale masonry monuments, designing and executing calibration experiments as well as calibrating numerical models under uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014
EditorsA. Cunha, P. Ribeiro, E. Caetano, G. Muller
PublisherEuropean Association for Structural Dynamics
Pages2721-2727
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9789727521654
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014
Event9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014 - Porto, Portugal
Duration: Jun 30 2014Jul 2 2014

Publication series

NameProceedings of the International Conference on Structural Dynamic , EURODYN
Volume2014-January
ISSN (Print)2311-9020

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014
CountryPortugal
CityPorto
Period6/30/147/2/14

Fingerprint

Numerical models
Calibration
Uncertainty
Differential equations
Physics
Experiments

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Building and Construction
  • Architecture
  • Civil and Structural Engineering

Cite this

Atamturktur, S., Prabhu, S., & Roche, G. (2014). Predictive modeling of large scale historic masonry monuments: Uncertainty quantification and model validation. In A. Cunha, P. Ribeiro, E. Caetano, & G. Muller (Eds.), Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014 (pp. 2721-2727). (Proceedings of the International Conference on Structural Dynamic , EURODYN; Vol. 2014-January). European Association for Structural Dynamics.
Atamturktur, Sez ; Prabhu, Saurabh ; Roche, Gregory. / Predictive modeling of large scale historic masonry monuments : Uncertainty quantification and model validation. Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014. editor / A. Cunha ; P. Ribeiro ; E. Caetano ; G. Muller. European Association for Structural Dynamics, 2014. pp. 2721-2727 (Proceedings of the International Conference on Structural Dynamic , EURODYN).
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Atamturktur, S, Prabhu, S & Roche, G 2014, Predictive modeling of large scale historic masonry monuments: Uncertainty quantification and model validation. in A Cunha, P Ribeiro, E Caetano & G Muller (eds), Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014. Proceedings of the International Conference on Structural Dynamic , EURODYN, vol. 2014-January, European Association for Structural Dynamics, pp. 2721-2727, 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014, Porto, Portugal, 6/30/14.

Predictive modeling of large scale historic masonry monuments : Uncertainty quantification and model validation. / Atamturktur, Sez; Prabhu, Saurabh; Roche, Gregory.

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014. ed. / A. Cunha; P. Ribeiro; E. Caetano; G. Muller. European Association for Structural Dynamics, 2014. p. 2721-2727 (Proceedings of the International Conference on Structural Dynamic , EURODYN; Vol. 2014-January).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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Atamturktur S, Prabhu S, Roche G. Predictive modeling of large scale historic masonry monuments: Uncertainty quantification and model validation. In Cunha A, Ribeiro P, Caetano E, Muller G, editors, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics, EURODYN 2014. European Association for Structural Dynamics. 2014. p. 2721-2727. (Proceedings of the International Conference on Structural Dynamic , EURODYN).