Probabilistic performance risk evaluation of infrastructure projects

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forecasting is a critical function of project control and management. Reliable forecasting enables the project manager to make better informed decisions for timely control actions to prevent or mitigate adverse project outcomes, especially schedule delays and/or cost overruns. Recently, a new probabilistic method for project schedule forecasting was developed based on the Kalman filter method and the earned value method. In this paper, the Kalman filter forecasting method for schedule is extended to formulate a consistent and practical method for project schedule and cost performance forecasting. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate how the new method can be efficiently employed in real projects. Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Subtitle of host publicationAnalysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences
Pages292-299
Number of pages8
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 13 2011
EventInternational Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011 - Hyattsville, MD, United States
Duration: Apr 11 2011Apr 13 2011

Publication series

NameVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences

Other

OtherInternational Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011
CountryUnited States
CityHyattsville, MD
Period4/11/114/13/11

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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    Kim, B. C. (2011). Probabilistic performance risk evaluation of infrastructure projects. In Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences (pp. 292-299). (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences). https://doi.org/10.1061/41170(400)36