Project portfolio risk prediction and analysis using the random walk method

Xingqi Zou, Qing Yang, Qian Hu, Tao Yao

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Based on the interdependency relationship among projects, the paper analyses risk factors in the project portfolio network via the random walk algorithm. Sustainability is one of the most important challenges of the project and portfolio management. This paper analyses the interdependencies among projects in a portfolio from the perspective of sustainable development and builds models to measure the relationship among risk factors via the Multidomain matrix (MDM) method. Using the interdependency relationship among projects and potential relationship between different risk factors as inputs, the paper builds the model of portfolio risk network to predict the risk in the project portfolio via a random walk algorithm. Because the random walk is a personalized recommendation algorithm, so our proposed method can achieve an accurate prediction of portfolio risk through predicting the risk factors and their probabilities in the portfolio. Our method can also help project managers to rank these risk factors in the portfolio through distinguishing the most concerned risks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationICORES 2019 - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems
EditorsMarc Demange, Federico Liberatore, Greg H. Parlier
PublisherSciTePress
Pages285-291
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9789897583520
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019
Event8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems, ICORES 2019 - Prague, Czech Republic
Duration: Feb 19 2019Feb 21 2019

Publication series

NameICORES 2019 - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems

Conference

Conference8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems, ICORES 2019
CountryCzech Republic
CityPrague
Period2/19/192/21/19

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

Zou, X., Yang, Q., Hu, Q., & Yao, T. (2019). Project portfolio risk prediction and analysis using the random walk method. In M. Demange, F. Liberatore, & G. H. Parlier (Eds.), ICORES 2019 - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems (pp. 285-291). (ICORES 2019 - Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems). SciTePress.