Abstract

Objective: Previous studies have estimated future PD prevalence based on population aging. This study revisits that projection by accounting for the potential impact of declining rates of smoking. Methods: The age- and gender-stratified smoking prevalence in the United States from 2000 to 2040 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Surgeon General's Smoking Report. PD prevalence was estimated based on population aging with and without an account of the impact of declining smoking rates. Relative risks of 0.56 and 0.78 were applied for current and former smokers, respectively. Results: Accounting for aging alone, ∼700,000 PD cases are predicted by 2040. After accounting for the declining smoking prevalence, ∼770,000 cases, an increase of ∼10% over the estimate without smoking, is predicted. Conclusions: If the epidemiological association of smoking and PD is causal, projecting future cases without considering smoking may underestimate disease burden, underscoring the urgency of adequate resource allocation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)156-159
Number of pages4
JournalMovement Disorders
Volume33
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2018

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Parkinson Disease
Smoking
Resource Allocation
Censuses
Population

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Neurology
  • Clinical Neurology

Cite this

@article{959ce442302a44f2b9fdce993ec1ba92,
title = "Projection of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the coming decades: Revisited",
abstract = "Objective: Previous studies have estimated future PD prevalence based on population aging. This study revisits that projection by accounting for the potential impact of declining rates of smoking. Methods: The age- and gender-stratified smoking prevalence in the United States from 2000 to 2040 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Surgeon General's Smoking Report. PD prevalence was estimated based on population aging with and without an account of the impact of declining smoking rates. Relative risks of 0.56 and 0.78 were applied for current and former smokers, respectively. Results: Accounting for aging alone, ∼700,000 PD cases are predicted by 2040. After accounting for the declining smoking prevalence, ∼770,000 cases, an increase of ∼10{\%} over the estimate without smoking, is predicted. Conclusions: If the epidemiological association of smoking and PD is causal, projecting future cases without considering smoking may underestimate disease burden, underscoring the urgency of adequate resource allocation.",
author = "Alexander Rossi and Kristin Berger and Honglei Chen and Douglas Leslie and Richard Mailman and Xuemei Huang",
year = "2018",
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doi = "10.1002/mds.27063",
language = "English (US)",
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pages = "156--159",
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Projection of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the coming decades : Revisited. / Rossi, Alexander; Berger, Kristin; Chen, Honglei; Leslie, Douglas; Mailman, Richard; Huang, Xuemei.

In: Movement Disorders, Vol. 33, No. 1, 01.01.2018, p. 156-159.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projection of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the coming decades

T2 - Revisited

AU - Rossi, Alexander

AU - Berger, Kristin

AU - Chen, Honglei

AU - Leslie, Douglas

AU - Mailman, Richard

AU - Huang, Xuemei

PY - 2018/1/1

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N2 - Objective: Previous studies have estimated future PD prevalence based on population aging. This study revisits that projection by accounting for the potential impact of declining rates of smoking. Methods: The age- and gender-stratified smoking prevalence in the United States from 2000 to 2040 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Surgeon General's Smoking Report. PD prevalence was estimated based on population aging with and without an account of the impact of declining smoking rates. Relative risks of 0.56 and 0.78 were applied for current and former smokers, respectively. Results: Accounting for aging alone, ∼700,000 PD cases are predicted by 2040. After accounting for the declining smoking prevalence, ∼770,000 cases, an increase of ∼10% over the estimate without smoking, is predicted. Conclusions: If the epidemiological association of smoking and PD is causal, projecting future cases without considering smoking may underestimate disease burden, underscoring the urgency of adequate resource allocation.

AB - Objective: Previous studies have estimated future PD prevalence based on population aging. This study revisits that projection by accounting for the potential impact of declining rates of smoking. Methods: The age- and gender-stratified smoking prevalence in the United States from 2000 to 2040 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Surgeon General's Smoking Report. PD prevalence was estimated based on population aging with and without an account of the impact of declining smoking rates. Relative risks of 0.56 and 0.78 were applied for current and former smokers, respectively. Results: Accounting for aging alone, ∼700,000 PD cases are predicted by 2040. After accounting for the declining smoking prevalence, ∼770,000 cases, an increase of ∼10% over the estimate without smoking, is predicted. Conclusions: If the epidemiological association of smoking and PD is causal, projecting future cases without considering smoking may underestimate disease burden, underscoring the urgency of adequate resource allocation.

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