Real time, time series forecasting of inter- and intra-state political conflict

Patrick T. Brandt, John R. Freeman, Philip A. Schrodt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

60 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors' simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)41-64
Number of pages24
JournalConflict Management and Peace Science
Volume28
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2011

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Political Science and International Relations

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