Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology

The case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam

David A. Rasmussen, Maciej F. Boni, Katia Koelle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)258-271
Number of pages14
JournalMolecular biology and evolution
Volume31
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

Fingerprint

Genealogy and Heraldry
Dengue virus
Dengue Virus
genealogy
Vietnam
epidemiology
virus
Epidemiology
Population Dynamics
population dynamics
Hospitalization
dengue
demographic history
Dengue
Information Storage and Retrieval
serotypes
demographic statistics
methodology
testing
seasonality

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Molecular Biology
  • Genetics

Cite this

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Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology : The case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam. / Rasmussen, David A.; Boni, Maciej F.; Koelle, Katia.

In: Molecular biology and evolution, Vol. 31, No. 2, 01.01.2014, p. 258-271.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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