Abstract
Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 258-271 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Molecular biology and evolution |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 2014 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
- Molecular Biology
- Genetics
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Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology : The case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam. / Rasmussen, David A.; Boni, MacIej F.; Koelle, Katia.
In: Molecular biology and evolution, Vol. 31, No. 2, 02.2014, p. 258-271.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology
T2 - The case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam
AU - Rasmussen, David A.
AU - Boni, MacIej F.
AU - Koelle, Katia
PY - 2014/2
Y1 - 2014/2
N2 - Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.
AB - Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893077215&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84893077215&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/molbev/mst203
DO - 10.1093/molbev/mst203
M3 - Article
C2 - 24150038
AN - SCOPUS:84893077215
VL - 31
SP - 258
EP - 271
JO - Molecular Biology and Evolution
JF - Molecular Biology and Evolution
SN - 0737-4038
IS - 2
ER -