Abstract
Lack of climate policy and CO2 markets along with a global economic slowdown suggest that we need to rethink our approach to demonstrating CCS at a commercial scale. Austerity measures make it likely that public funding will be tight in coming years, and there is a striking need to ensure that limited funds are spent optimally. Quantitative tools exist for aiding decision making under uncertainty, yet few of them have been applied to build a model that can help answer the question of what is the optimal allocation of a given amount of money across a portfolio of demonstration projects that maximizes learning about CCS. Developing such a model is the goal of this paper and we employ the model to assess the proper role of Enhanced Oil Recovery ((EOR) in a CCS demonstration portfolio. We find that if we want to maximize learning, a CCUS-only (CCS + EOR) approach to developing CCS as a mitigation technology would only be advisable if there was little uncertainty in non-EOR storage. As we believe that this condition is unlikely to be true, we suggest that U.S. policy makers should be particularly cautious in relying on a CCUS-only approach to CCS development. Nonetheless, we also find that a portfolio consisting of a mix of CCS and CCUS projects can be an effective strategy in a number of situations, notably if EOR can teach us important lessons about non-EOR storage.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 7647-7667 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | Energy Procedia |
| Volume | 37 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 1 2013 |
| Event | 11th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, GHGT 2012 - Kyoto, Japan Duration: Nov 18 2012 → Nov 22 2012 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Energy(all)
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Rethinking CCS developing quantitative tools for analyzing investments in CCS. / Eide, Jan; Herzog, Howard; Webster, Mort D.
In: Energy Procedia, Vol. 37, 01.01.2013, p. 7647-7667.Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Rethinking CCS developing quantitative tools for analyzing investments in CCS
AU - Eide, Jan
AU - Herzog, Howard
AU - Webster, Mort D.
PY - 2013/1/1
Y1 - 2013/1/1
N2 - Lack of climate policy and CO2 markets along with a global economic slowdown suggest that we need to rethink our approach to demonstrating CCS at a commercial scale. Austerity measures make it likely that public funding will be tight in coming years, and there is a striking need to ensure that limited funds are spent optimally. Quantitative tools exist for aiding decision making under uncertainty, yet few of them have been applied to build a model that can help answer the question of what is the optimal allocation of a given amount of money across a portfolio of demonstration projects that maximizes learning about CCS. Developing such a model is the goal of this paper and we employ the model to assess the proper role of Enhanced Oil Recovery ((EOR) in a CCS demonstration portfolio. We find that if we want to maximize learning, a CCUS-only (CCS + EOR) approach to developing CCS as a mitigation technology would only be advisable if there was little uncertainty in non-EOR storage. As we believe that this condition is unlikely to be true, we suggest that U.S. policy makers should be particularly cautious in relying on a CCUS-only approach to CCS development. Nonetheless, we also find that a portfolio consisting of a mix of CCS and CCUS projects can be an effective strategy in a number of situations, notably if EOR can teach us important lessons about non-EOR storage.
AB - Lack of climate policy and CO2 markets along with a global economic slowdown suggest that we need to rethink our approach to demonstrating CCS at a commercial scale. Austerity measures make it likely that public funding will be tight in coming years, and there is a striking need to ensure that limited funds are spent optimally. Quantitative tools exist for aiding decision making under uncertainty, yet few of them have been applied to build a model that can help answer the question of what is the optimal allocation of a given amount of money across a portfolio of demonstration projects that maximizes learning about CCS. Developing such a model is the goal of this paper and we employ the model to assess the proper role of Enhanced Oil Recovery ((EOR) in a CCS demonstration portfolio. We find that if we want to maximize learning, a CCUS-only (CCS + EOR) approach to developing CCS as a mitigation technology would only be advisable if there was little uncertainty in non-EOR storage. As we believe that this condition is unlikely to be true, we suggest that U.S. policy makers should be particularly cautious in relying on a CCUS-only approach to CCS development. Nonetheless, we also find that a portfolio consisting of a mix of CCS and CCUS projects can be an effective strategy in a number of situations, notably if EOR can teach us important lessons about non-EOR storage.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84898756621&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84898756621&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.egypro.2013.06.711
DO - 10.1016/j.egypro.2013.06.711
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:84898756621
VL - 37
SP - 7647
EP - 7667
JO - Energy Procedia
JF - Energy Procedia
SN - 1876-6102
ER -