Revisiting predictions of war duration

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We reexamine the fit of Bennett and Stam's 1996 model of war duration, correcting errors in the reported estimates of prediction accuracy.We discuss how to assess fit in the absence of standard or widely accepted measures of fit in duration models. We introduce a proportional reduction in error measure for duration models and report new estimates of model fit from the Bennett and Stam model.The model does significantly reduce prediction error relative to a na»ve model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)256-267
Number of pages12
JournalConflict Management and Peace Science
Volume26
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2009

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Prediction
Duration models
Prediction accuracy
Prediction error

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Political Science and International Relations

Cite this

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title = "Revisiting predictions of war duration",
abstract = "We reexamine the fit of Bennett and Stam's 1996 model of war duration, correcting errors in the reported estimates of prediction accuracy.We discuss how to assess fit in the absence of standard or widely accepted measures of fit in duration models. We introduce a proportional reduction in error measure for duration models and report new estimates of model fit from the Bennett and Stam model.The model does significantly reduce prediction error relative to a na»ve model.",
author = "{Bennett, Jr.}, {David Scott} and Stam, {Allan C.}",
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journal = "Conflict Management and Peace Science",
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Revisiting predictions of war duration. / Bennett, Jr., David Scott; Stam, Allan C.

In: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 26, No. 3, 01.07.2009, p. 256-267.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

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AU - Stam, Allan C.

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