Right-sizing Russia's nuclear deterrent: Offensive reductions and defense uncertainties

Russia and the United States face conflicting pressures with respect to broadening and deepening the regime of strategic nuclear arms reductions agreed to in New START. The Obama administration favors additional reductions in long-range nuclear weapons as well as talks on the status of NATO and Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons located in Europe. At the 2010 Lisbon summit NATO and Russia agreed to prompt discussions on the possibility of creating a European missile defense system with shared responsibility. Against these positives, Russia remains wary of U.S. intent with respect to missile defenses, both states face near term presidential elections that distract from prior commitments, and neither the Obama administration nor the U.S. congressional leadership is ready for a bruising post-New START debate.