Sensitivity of earned value schedule forecasting to S-curve patterns

Byung Cheol Kim, Hyung Jin Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying relative robustness and early warning capacity of six deterministic methods and one probabilistic method with respect to the nonlinearity of progress curves and the schedule delay patterns. The sensitivity analysis in this paper shows that forecast accuracy and early warning credibility of deterministic methods are very sensitive to the S-curve patterns, especially early in a project. The results also indicate that the probabilistic method (the Kalman filter earned value method) is the only method among the seven alternatives that is robust with respect to the progress curve nonlinearity and the schedule delay patterns. Consequently, this paper would positively contribute to the practice of project schedule control by providing practical guidance for and valuable insights into a sanity test on the forecasts and warning signals from the forecasting methods so that more informed decisions are made and unnecessary control actions triggered by false warning can be effectively prevented.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number04014023
JournalJournal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume140
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2014

Fingerprint

Kalman filters
Sensitivity analysis
Schedule
Earned value
S-curve
Forecasting method
Nonlinearity
Probabilistic methods
Warning
Schedule delay
Early warning
Robustness
Value management
Kalman filter
Credibility
Guidance
Forecast accuracy

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • Industrial relations
  • Strategy and Management

Cite this

@article{bcb65d5f3f5347ec941ced68c6014d89,
title = "Sensitivity of earned value schedule forecasting to S-curve patterns",
abstract = "This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying relative robustness and early warning capacity of six deterministic methods and one probabilistic method with respect to the nonlinearity of progress curves and the schedule delay patterns. The sensitivity analysis in this paper shows that forecast accuracy and early warning credibility of deterministic methods are very sensitive to the S-curve patterns, especially early in a project. The results also indicate that the probabilistic method (the Kalman filter earned value method) is the only method among the seven alternatives that is robust with respect to the progress curve nonlinearity and the schedule delay patterns. Consequently, this paper would positively contribute to the practice of project schedule control by providing practical guidance for and valuable insights into a sanity test on the forecasts and warning signals from the forecasting methods so that more informed decisions are made and unnecessary control actions triggered by false warning can be effectively prevented.",
author = "Kim, {Byung Cheol} and Kim, {Hyung Jin}",
year = "2014",
month = "7",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000856",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "140",
journal = "Journal of Construction Engineering and Management - ASCE",
issn = "0733-9364",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
number = "7",

}

Sensitivity of earned value schedule forecasting to S-curve patterns. / Kim, Byung Cheol; Kim, Hyung Jin.

In: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 140, No. 7, 04014023, 01.07.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Sensitivity of earned value schedule forecasting to S-curve patterns

AU - Kim, Byung Cheol

AU - Kim, Hyung Jin

PY - 2014/7/1

Y1 - 2014/7/1

N2 - This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying relative robustness and early warning capacity of six deterministic methods and one probabilistic method with respect to the nonlinearity of progress curves and the schedule delay patterns. The sensitivity analysis in this paper shows that forecast accuracy and early warning credibility of deterministic methods are very sensitive to the S-curve patterns, especially early in a project. The results also indicate that the probabilistic method (the Kalman filter earned value method) is the only method among the seven alternatives that is robust with respect to the progress curve nonlinearity and the schedule delay patterns. Consequently, this paper would positively contribute to the practice of project schedule control by providing practical guidance for and valuable insights into a sanity test on the forecasts and warning signals from the forecasting methods so that more informed decisions are made and unnecessary control actions triggered by false warning can be effectively prevented.

AB - This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying relative robustness and early warning capacity of six deterministic methods and one probabilistic method with respect to the nonlinearity of progress curves and the schedule delay patterns. The sensitivity analysis in this paper shows that forecast accuracy and early warning credibility of deterministic methods are very sensitive to the S-curve patterns, especially early in a project. The results also indicate that the probabilistic method (the Kalman filter earned value method) is the only method among the seven alternatives that is robust with respect to the progress curve nonlinearity and the schedule delay patterns. Consequently, this paper would positively contribute to the practice of project schedule control by providing practical guidance for and valuable insights into a sanity test on the forecasts and warning signals from the forecasting methods so that more informed decisions are made and unnecessary control actions triggered by false warning can be effectively prevented.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84902507405&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84902507405&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000856

DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000856

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84902507405

VL - 140

JO - Journal of Construction Engineering and Management - ASCE

JF - Journal of Construction Engineering and Management - ASCE

SN - 0733-9364

IS - 7

M1 - 04014023

ER -