Short Term Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with Gradient Boost Regression

Soumva Tiwari, Reza Sabzchgar, Mohammad Rasouli

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Currently, the energy market is facing the challenge of significant increase in demand and it is a well known fact that the availability of fossil fuels is limited. The solar generation has evolved as the most promising solution to meet the demand, but the integration of solar generation to the power grid poses a stability threat due to its intermittent nature. To ensure the legitimate operation of the grid, accurate solar power forecast is essential. Apart from stability, accurate forecasting can also help in maintaining economic operation of the grid since it would help in appropriate installation of storage resources. In this study, we present an approach for short term solar irradiance forecast at a given location based on numerical weather prediction in combination with gradient boosting regression and bootstrap aggregation machine learning models. We considered additional parameters such as spatial parameters (elevation, latitude, longitude) and seasonal parameters (day and month of the year). Effectiveness of the proposed method will be evaluated based on Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) indices.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2018 9th IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems, PEDG 2018
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Print)9781538667057
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 27 2018
Event9th IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems, PEDG 2018 - Charlotte, United States
Duration: Jun 25 2018Jun 28 2018

Publication series

Name2018 9th IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems, PEDG 2018

Other

Other9th IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems, PEDG 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityCharlotte
Period6/25/186/28/18

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Control and Optimization

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