TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulation of crop productivity and responses to climate change in the year 2030
T2 - the role of future technologies, adjustments and adaptations
AU - McKenney, Mary S.
AU - Easterling, William E.
AU - Rosenberg, Norman J.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank Laura Katz for her help with the identification of future technologies in the literature, and C. Allan Jones, Paul Dyke and Jimmy Williams for their help in representing these technologies in EPIC. We are also grateful to Angela Blake and Debbie Hemphill for their assistance in word processing this manuscript. This research was prepared for Pacific Northwest Laboratory under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830 with the US Department of Energy under Agreement 041460-A-K1.
PY - 1992/4/15
Y1 - 1992/4/15
N2 - Advances in agricultural technology may affect the response of crop yields to a future climate change induced by greenhouse warming. We illustrate a methodology for simulating these effects by manipulating the parameters of a crop simulation model erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) to represent a set of proposed future technologies. Sensitivity analyses were first performed to test the effect of changes in each of the parameters individually. Crop yields were then simulated with a set of these future technologies under the climate of the 1951-1980 period (the 'control' climate) and under the climate of the 1930s (used as an analog of climate change), for locations in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (MINK). The future technologies increased yields by an average of 72% above current levels, but had little effect on the sensitivity of crop yields to climate change. Next, realizing that attempts will probably be made to adjust farming practices to a changed climate, we implemented a set of changes which represent both currently available strategies for coping with the analog climate as well as new techniques which might be developed in response to a hotter, drier climate. With these changes in place, both yields and water use were less affected by the analog climate. If the direct effects of increased CO2 are also considered, yields of all crops but corn were equal to or greater than those that occur with no climate change. We also considered the economic feasibility of crop substitutions and shifts in the location of irrigated agriculture as adjustments to the analog climate. The final step in this analysis was to scale farm-level results to the regional level.
AB - Advances in agricultural technology may affect the response of crop yields to a future climate change induced by greenhouse warming. We illustrate a methodology for simulating these effects by manipulating the parameters of a crop simulation model erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) to represent a set of proposed future technologies. Sensitivity analyses were first performed to test the effect of changes in each of the parameters individually. Crop yields were then simulated with a set of these future technologies under the climate of the 1951-1980 period (the 'control' climate) and under the climate of the 1930s (used as an analog of climate change), for locations in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (MINK). The future technologies increased yields by an average of 72% above current levels, but had little effect on the sensitivity of crop yields to climate change. Next, realizing that attempts will probably be made to adjust farming practices to a changed climate, we implemented a set of changes which represent both currently available strategies for coping with the analog climate as well as new techniques which might be developed in response to a hotter, drier climate. With these changes in place, both yields and water use were less affected by the analog climate. If the direct effects of increased CO2 are also considered, yields of all crops but corn were equal to or greater than those that occur with no climate change. We also considered the economic feasibility of crop substitutions and shifts in the location of irrigated agriculture as adjustments to the analog climate. The final step in this analysis was to scale farm-level results to the regional level.
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U2 - 10.1016/0168-1923(92)90088-L
DO - 10.1016/0168-1923(92)90088-L
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0026438887
VL - 59
SP - 103
EP - 127
JO - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
JF - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
SN - 0168-1923
IS - 1-2
ER -