Stickier priors: The effects of nonanalytic versus analytic thinking in new product forecasting

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Abstract

The author investigates scenario generation and analogical reasoning as potential sources of bias in new product forecasting. In a series of studies, scenarios and analogies are shown to have persistent effects on judgment, despite subsequent use of corrective analytic techniques (e.g., counterfactual reasoning, counterscenarios, counteranalogies, decomposition, accountability). These findings demonstrate the robustness of nonanalytic processes on judgment and the need to be aware of their seductive effects.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)65-79
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Marketing Research
Volume40
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2003

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Business and International Management
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Marketing

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