Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts

Michael E. Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Suzana J. Camargo, James P. Kossin, Jenni L. Evans

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Scopus citations

Abstract

Using the historical Atlantic tropical cyclone record, this study examines the empirical relationships between climate state variables and Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. The state variables considered as predictors include indices of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillation, and both "local" and "relative" measures of Main Development Region sea surface temperature. Other predictors considered include indices measuring the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the West African monsoon. Using all of the potential predictors in a forward stepwise Poisson regression, we examine the relationships between tropical cyclone counts and climate state variables. As a further extension on past studies, both basin-wide named storm counts and cluster analysis time series representing distinct flavors of tropical cyclones, are modeled. A wide variety of cross validation metrics reveal that basin-wide counts or sums over appropriately chosen clusters may be more skillfully modeled than the individual cluster series. Ultimately, the most skillful models typically share three predictors: indices for the main development region sea surface temperatures, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberD18103
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Volume117
Issue number17
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2012

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Forestry
  • Oceanography
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Palaeontology

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